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000
FXUS62 KJAX 210558
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
158 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Convective debris clouds continue to push through the near zonal
flow aloft leading to bouts of clouds across the region tonight.
Based on current trends upstream, PoPs have been lowered through
the rest of the night. That said, a few vort ribbons moving
through the flow aloft may trigger isolated light showers through
about midnight in SE GA north of Waycross but more likely
conditions stay dry (pops generally < 25%).

A stalling frontal zone to the north will promote another night
of west to southwesterly flow, which will advect a low stratus
deck from the Big Bend across NE FL tonight and may lead to areas
of low visibility where winds trend calm, mainly along the
Suwannee River Valley/I-75 corridor late tonight and early Sunday
(4-7am). Low stratus and patchy fog could push all the way to the
I-95 corridor and western areas of Jacksonville; however, a
persistent offshore winds should prevent dense fog development.
Lows will be on the mild side with readings in the spanning the
low/mid 60s inland while coastal locations read in the upper 60s
to near 70.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Isolated to scattered convection is possible for this afternoon
and evening with developments most likely to occur over inland
southeast Georgia, with a potential for isolated strong storms
forming in the vicinity of areas north of the Douglas-Alma-Jesup
line as weak embedded short waves passing ahead of the advancing
cold front up to the north. Early morning patchy fog is possible
on Sunday primarily over northeast Florida with areas to the west
of the I-95 corridor. High temperatures today will reach up into
the upper 80s and lower 90s throughout the forecast area with
overnight low temperatures dropping down into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A cold front drapes itself across the GA/FL border Sunday morning
and pushes its way south through the region by Monday. Rain
showers and embedded thunderstorm chances of 20 to 30 percent
begin in SE GA and will spread south into NE FL with chances
increasing in the afternoon and evening region wide. Temperatures
will get into the mid to upper 80s for NE FL ahead of the front
while SE GA temperatures will be cooler in the mid 70s to 80s
behind the front. Temperatures Monday will be significantly
cooler with the frontal passage with highs in the mid to upper 60s
for most of the region and some areas to the south hanging in in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

High pressure fills in behind the cold front, bringing drier
conditions and sunny to mostly sunny skies to the region. The
models show another cold front coming through late Wednesday
night/ Thursday morning but conditions look to be too dry to
produce any precipitation at this time. Temperatures will warm
throughout the week, getting back into the low to mid 80s by
Wednesday and the mid to upper 80s by Friday and Saturday inland
with temperatures cooler along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

So far, VFR conditions but some low clouds are developing over
the central portions of the forecast area. Still looks like potential
low cigs and some vsby problems for GNV, VQQ, and JAX over the course
of the next several hours. After these restrictions dissipate by
13z/14z, attention shifts towards a cold front approaching terminals
today with prospects for a good chance of showers and storms this
aftn. Have included TEMPO groups for storms for around the 19z-00z
time frame, and then some patchy rain and MVFR cigs afterward.
Light southwest to west winds anticipated through 14z, then winds
will be west- southwest about 10-15 kt with a few gusts of 25 kt,
outside of the showers and storms today. Wind shift to the northwest
and then north expected this evening and overnight after the
frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Southerly sea breeze winds this afternoon and evening will turn to
become offshore later tonight. Cold front will begin to enter the
area waters Sunday and then shift well south of the area Monday.
Small craft advisory conditions may begin as early as Sunday night
as northerly winds increase. SCA looks probable for Monday til
Tuesday, with winds dropping of during the day on Tuesday, though
seas will remain elevated. Winds and seas continue to be diminish
by Wednesday as high pressure ridge will dominate the area by
then.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate risk is placed in for northeast
FL with swells of about 2 ft with periods about 10 seconds. Lower
end risk for southeast GA beaches for today. Somewhat lower risk
appears in place for Sunday given mostly an offshore wind and
smaller swell heights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  53  68  47 /  80  40  10   0
SSI  83  56  66  55 /  60  60  30   0
JAX  87  57  67  52 /  50  70  40   0
SGJ  89  60  69  58 /  30  70  40  10
GNV  85  59  70  49 /  30  50  30   0
OCF  84  62  74  52 /  20  50  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$