National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KJAX 140533
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
133 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Sfc high pressure around 1024 mb is analyzed near the mouth of the
MS River in the Gulf of Mexico. The high will move east to be north
and central FL by 12z Sunday. The current forecast looks on track
with lows tonight in the upper 40s inland mainly, and near 50 to
lower 50s closer to the coast. This is about 1-3 deg below the NBM
guidance for the inland areas, with the radiational cooling looking
very favorable tonight given the winds becoming near calm and the
skies will be clear.

No significant changes to the marine forecast with winds near 10 kt
and seas near 1-3 ft tonight and Sunday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Early afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1027
millibars) centered over western portions of the FL panhandle.
Aloft...deep and dry northwesterly flow prevails locally, as our
area now lies between deep troughing that was shifting off the
U.S. eastern seaboard and ridging that was building over the Bay
of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico). Just a few wisps of
cirrus were advecting east-southeastward across our region, with a
very dry air mass, as evidenced by the 0.25 inches of PWAT on the
12Z sounding at Jacksonville, not allowing for any cumulus cloud
development at the noon hour. Temperatures were rising to the mid
and upper 70s at most locations as 18Z, with unseasonably low
dewpoints falling through the upper 20s and 30s at most
locations.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Stout ridging will remain anchored over the Bay of Campeche into
early portions the upcoming week, keeping a dry northwesterly flow
pattern in place across our area. Heights aloft will slowly rise as
troughing progresses eastward and off the U.S. eastern seaboard.
Surface high pressure will shift directly over our area tonight,
allowing for winds to become calm before midnight. Radiational
cooling will likely allow lows to fall to the upper 40s inland,
with lower 50s forecast along the immediate coast towards sunrise
on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A surface high pressure dominates the region Sunday before slowly
making its way east into the Atlantic Ocean by Monday. Sunday,
expect clear sunny skies with inland temperatures in the mid 80s
staying slightly cooler along the coast as the sea breeze pushes
its way on shore in the afternoon. Monday temperatures will be in
the mid to high 80s staying in the low 80s along the coast with
mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

High pressure off the Atlantic coast continues to bring dry
conditions to the area Tuesday and Wednesday creating winds mostly
from a southerly direction. This will allow the Atlantic sea
breeze to make its way inland around the I-95/ US 17 area keeping
temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s along the coast. Inland
temperatures will be in the mid to high 80s.

Models are showing a couple of weaker cold fronts making their way
through the region toward the end of the week. There is some
disagreement among the models as to when the first front will make
its way through the region. The ECMWF shows the first front
pushing its way through Wednesday night/very early Thursday
morning and the GFS shows the first front coming through early
Thursday morning but both models show no significant form of
precipitation. Both models come together to show the second front
making its way in Friday evening though they differ on whether or
not it will produce precipitation. Temperatures should peak
Thursday in the mid to high 80s before cooling with the frontal
passages into the high 70s to low 80s for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure will continue to stretch east southeast from the Big
Bend of northern Florida into north central Florida overnight with
calm winds away from the coast and variable at SSI/SGJ 3-5 knots.
The high will slide eastward and linger over the area Sunday with
variable winds to begin the day at most sites near 5 knots while
flow trends easterly by late morning at SGJ as the high`s center
enters the waters. Sunny skies expected into afternoon that will
drive slightly higher southeasterly winds 8-10 knots behind the
Atlantic seabreeze into SGJ, SSI, and CRG by 18Z-19Z, then to JAX
by 21Z. Cirrus clouds will enter towards sunrise with winds
becoming calm inland after 02Z and remaining variable at the coast
through the end of the period under cirrus overhead.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

High pressure centered over the Florida panhandle will continue to
shift eastward, becoming centered directly over our local waters
later tonight and Sunday morning. Winds and seas will continue to
diminish this evening, with seas of 2-3 feet expected to prevail
both near shore and offshore through Tuesday. High pressure will
move offshore on Sunday evening, with this feature becoming
anchored near Bermuda during the early to middle portions of the
upcoming week, creating a prevailing southerly wind flow across
our local waters. Southerly wind surges are expected for the
offshore waters beginning on Monday evening, but speeds are
expected to remain just below Caution levels. Seas will build
slightly to 3-4 feet offshore beginning on Tuesday. A cold front
is expected to approach our area from the west by Friday.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds developing during the afternoon hours
will combine with a lingering ocean swell to keep a lower end
moderate rip current risk in place during the next few days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A dry air mass will prevail throughout our region during the next
several days, with minimum relative humidity values crashing to
near critical levels each afternoon through Tuesday. Otherwise,
breezy northwesterly transport winds will prevail through the
mid-afternoon hours today, followed by diminishing wind speeds.
Surface winds will become east-southeasterly along portions of
the northeast FL coast late this afternoon for locations from St.
Augustine southward. Breezy transport winds will combine with
elevated mixing heights to result in good to marginally high
daytime dispersion values at most inland locations this afternoon.
Decreasing surface and transport speeds will continue on Sunday
and Monday, creating mainly fair daytime dispersion values on
Sunday, except good values for locations north of Waycross.
Elevated mixing heights on Monday are expected to bring fair to
good daytime dispersion values area-wide.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Water levels have risen and are approaching flood stage along the
Satilla River near the gauge at Waycross, and a river flood
warning was issued early this morning. Moderate flooding was
occurring upstream at the gauge above Millwood. Minor flooding
will continue during the next several days along the Satilla River
from the Waycross gauge downstream to around the Atkinson gauge.
Water levels are also rising towards flood stage along the Alapaha
River near the Statenville gauge, where a peak of just below
moderate flood is now forecast tonight and Sunday. Moderate
flooding is ongoing downstream of this gauge near Jennings.

River rises are ongoing elsewhere along upper portions of the
Altamaha River, the St. Marys River, the Suwannee River, and
lower portions of the Santa Fe River. Minor flooding is expected
to begin along upper portions of the Altamaha River near the
Charlotteville and Baxley gauges during the early portions of the
upcoming week. Minor flooding is expected to begin along lower
portions of the Suwannee River near the Ellaville, Luraville, and
Rock Bluff gauges during the early to middle portions of the
upcoming week. This flood wave traveling down the Suwannee is
resulting in flooding along lower portions of the Santa River,
with water levels expected to rise towards moderate flooding near
the Three Rivers Estates gauge later in the upcoming week, with
minor flooding forecast near the gauge at Hildreth. Otherwise,
water levels were cresting in a minor flood along portions of the
St. Marys River near the Moniac gauge, with levels forecast to
remain just below flood stage downstream at the gauge near
Macclenny.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  55  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  80  60  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  83  56  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  81  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  84  53  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  83  53  87  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$