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000
FXUS64 KLUB 231140
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
640 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Surface cold front, as of 2 am, is located across northern Kansas
and will continue moving south through the morning hours. This front
should enter our forecast area around noon and clear the entire area
by midnight. Ahead of this front, compressional warming will help to
boost temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s today. A weak
dryline is also expected to develop and shift east to near the
edge of the Caprock. Ahead of the dryline and cold front,
dewpoints in the upper 50s and steep mid-level lapse rates will
lead to MLCAPE values around 1500 J/Kg. As has been talked about
the past several days though a cap will be in place around 725 mb
with around 50 J/Kg of CIN. Convective allowing guidance continues
to indicate that near the intersection of the dryline and cold
front, lift will be sufficient for thunderstorm development and
based on the CAPE/shear parameters supercells would be favored.
Cloud bases will be fairly high so large hail and damaging wind
gusts are the primary threat. If a right splitting supercell
becomes established relatively slow storm motions may also lead to
localized heavy rainfall. This activity should move east and out
of our area shortly after sunset. Isentropic ascent will increase
during the overnight hours which will allow a low cloud deck to
blossom over the forecast area. These low clouds will keep
temperatures mostly in the 50s Wednesday morning. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A relatively active stretch of weather remains in the cards for much
of the extended forecast period as a train of upper level
disturbances pass over the region. Wednesday starts out with a
stationary front oriented W-E squarely across our region, with
deep low level moisture in place especially off the Caprock within
a potent low/midlevel warm advection regime. Modest isentropic
lift is expected to result in areas of drizzle or light rain
across the SE TX Panhandle early in the day, with high
temperatures also likely to be cool in this region relative to the
rest of the forecast area given the anticipated thick low cloud
cover. The forecast for the rest of Wednesday into Wednesday night
is more uncertain, with uncertainty largely driven by a
conditional potential for thunderstorms off the Caprock as
isentropic lift intensifies and the surface front attempts to
wobble back northward. A stable surface layer results in a stout
capping inversion through most of this period, but the
aforementioned isentropic lift as well as the arrival of a weak
ripple in the flow aloft could allow isolated or scattered storms
to develop off the Caprock Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. While this potential is conditional, feel the signal is
strong enough to introduce SChc PoPs along and east of the
escarpment Wed-Wed night, with some severe threat certainly
present if storms do manage to develop.

The pattern transitions into more of a classic West Texas dryline
setup beginning Thursday as southwest flow aloft intensifies ahead
of a potent midlevel shortwave digging over the Four Corners region.
Guidance remains in very good agreement sharpening a dryline
somewhere right along the I-27 corridor on Thursday with dewpoints
off the Caprock progged to surge well into the 60s. Despite a
favorable dryline position and rich low level moisture east of the
dryline within backing surface flow, very strong inhibition is
progged to remain in place through most of the day off the Caprock
as a stout EML shifts overhead a relatively cool and capped boundary
layer. Most guidance keeps the cap in place through the entire
day on Thursday with little or no thunderstorm development during
the daytime hours, and this seems reasonable given a relatively late
arrival of the upper trough axis. The most likely outcome currently
appears to be a late initiation of scattered storms on Thursday
night as the main batch of forcing arrives along with a modified
Pacific surface front. This would place most of the Rolling Plains
and SE TX Panhandle under threat of severe weather overnight
Thursday night into early Friday morning, but exactly how far west
this threat extends is still uncertain. After a dry and breezy day
on Friday, guidance is advertising another dryline sharpening across
the region on Saturday ahead of another potent disturbance aloft.
However, the Saturday dryline will likely set up much further east
given a limited window for moisture return, with only the eastern
edges of the forecast area having a chance at storms Saturday before
drier air sweeps into the region. Drier and more tranquil weather is
then expected to return Sunday into early next week as upper ridging
rebuilds over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of this
TAF period. Winds about 800 ft AGL remain around 40 kts at KCDS
this morning and with surface winds remaining light this will
lead to LLWS through about 14z. A cold front will sweep south
through the area late this morning and afternoon which will
switch southwesterly winds around to the north and then to the
east as we go through the period. A few strong thunderstorms may
develop south of KCDS and east of KLBB/KPVW late this afternoon
and evening but no direct impacts are expected at the three TAF
sites. Towards the end of this TAF period MVFR to IFR ceilings
are expected to develop across the Texas Panhandle and move south
through tomorrow morning.

 &&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...58