804
FXUS61 KLWX 020801
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
401 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level ridge will build over the area today through
Friday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will cross the area
late Thursday night into Friday before sinking south this
weekend. A secondary cold front and area of low pressure will
pass through the area Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

An upper level ridge will build over the East today leading to
hot and record high temps at IAD and BWI. Humidity levels will
be manageable due to dewpoints below 60. Most of the area should
be capped today, except perhaps over the mountains where an
isold t-storm may develop late in the day. Other than sct high
clouds, skies should remain mostly sunny.

It should remain mostly clear tonight, except for some cirrus.
Backdoor cold front will enter the picture late tonight with
winds turning from the NE. No precip is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Plenty of cirrus Fri and cooler as high pressure wedges south.
This will allow for onshore east to southeast flow to increase
across the area especially east of the Blue Ridge. Isolated to
scattered mountain showers and t-storms are expected as cdfnt
banks against the Appalachians. Showers stay mainly west of the
Blue Ridge Fri night, but begin to progress east Saturday into
Sunday as shortwave perturbations break down the ridge pattern.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A weak low pressure system and associated cold front will move
through the area on Sunday. The cold front will stall over the
forecast area Monday and Tuesday before lifting northward as a warm
front Tuesday afternoon. This will bring a prolonged period of
unsettled weather as we close out the weekend and begin the
workweek. Shower and thunderstorm chances peak Sunday as the front
moves through the area. rainfall will be heavy at times with
localized instances of flooding possible due to southerly flow
providing ample moisture. WPC has the western those along and west
of the Blue Ridge in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. At this
time, the severe risk is low with limited instability.

Slight chance to chance PoPs linger through midweek as the
aforementioned frontal boundary remains stalled over the area.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible each day.

High temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 60s in NE
Maryland and higher elevations to the upper 70s in central Virginia.
Overnight low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.
There will be a gradual warming trend each day with highs reaching
the upper 80s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR today and Fri. Marine layer pushes inland Fri night into
Saturday with MVFR cigs developing.

A cold front moving through the area and then stalling to our south
will bring unsettled weather to all terminals Sunday and Monday.
During showers and thunderstorms, reduced CIGs and VSBYs are
possible. Gusty southerly winds will gradually decrease throughout
the day Sunday, gusting 15-20 knots in the morning. Winds remain out
of the southeast on Monday, blowing 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA issued for Fri as onshore flow strengthens. It will likely
need to be extended into Saturday and beyond.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the waters Sunday and
Monday. Gusty southeasterly winds on Sunday will likely be SCA
criteria. Winds remain out of the southeast on Monday, diminishing
to sub-SCA criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Onshore flow will lead to rising water levels Saturday into
Sunday with minor coastal flooding expected during the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Well above normal temperatures are forecast today. Below is a
list of daily high temperature records.

====================================================================
       Record Daily High Temperatures for Thursday 05/02
====================================================================
  Site         Thursday 05/02  value (Year record was set)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Record Highs Thursday 05/02

Sites                         Records/Year           Forecast High
Washington DC (DCA)               91/2018                   89
Dulles(IAD)                       88/2018                   91
Baltimore, MD (BWI)               90/2018                   91
Martinsburg, WV (MRB)             95/1942                   90
Charlottesville, VA (CHO)         91/2018                   94
Hagerstown, MD (HGR)              90/2018                   90
Annapolis, MD (NAK)               90/1992                   87


=================================================================== =

     Site Legend
------------------------
DCA area - Washington DC
BWI area - Baltimore MD                          Table Legend
IAD area - Sterling/Dulles VA               ------------------------
MRB area - Martinsburg WV                      Temperature (Year)
CHO area - Charlottesville VA
HGR area - Hagerstown MD
NAK area - Annapolis MD

Although the facilities (airports, etc.) where temperatures are
currently observed were built in the mid to late 20th century,
additional temperature records taken at nearby sites before that
extend the valid periods of record back into the late 1800s (except
for IAD, where records go back to 1960).

Record Event Reports (RERs) are only issued for the sites denoted
with a (*).

All climate data is considered preliminary until reviewed by the
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/LFR
MARINE...AVS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...LWX