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000
FNUS71 KLWX 160857
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Evick Knob...USFS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
457 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will slowly approach this location during the morning
hours before stalling nearby. The drier air behind this feature
will lower daytime RH values into the 30 to 35 percent range. By
later this afternoon and evening, the system should gradually push
across the Allegheny Highlands as a warm front. Being in close
proximity to the frontal boundary will yield scattered showers
along with isolated thunderstorms for this afternoon and early
evening. Gusty and erratic winds may accompany any of the stronger
storms.

A more widespread wetting rain is expected on Wednesday,
accompanied by a slight chance for some thunderstorms. South winds
will prevail through the period, with some increase in transport
winds on Wednesday afternoon.

A weak cold front tracks through on Thursday before a stronger
frontal system approaches the area by late in the work week. Above
normal temperatures are likely this week before turning cooler
this weekend.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      5AM
Sky (%).........63
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0
Temp............53
RH..............71
20 FT wind dir..N
20 FT wind spd..3
20 FT wind gust.5
Eye lvl wnd dir.N
Eye lvl wnd spd.2
Eye lvl wnd gst.3
Transp wind dir.NE
Transp wind spd.7
Haines index....2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2
Ventrate Cat....PR

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers late in the afternoon. Isolated
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 40 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south up to 5 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast
                    3 to 7 mph late in the morning, then shifting
                    to the southwest 8 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (31600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........55     41     50     57     63     71
Weather cov.....                            SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            ISOLTD ISOLTD
CWR.............0      0      0      0      40     40
Temp............51     53     62     69     73     73
RH..............77     66     48     39     35     41
20 ft wind......NE 3   S 2    S 5    S 7    S 8    S 8
20 ft wind gust.       3      6      9      12     12
Eye level wind..NE 2   S 1    S 3    S 4    S 5    S 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.       2      4      5      7      7
Transport wind..NE 7   NE 5   SE 3   S 7    SW 10  SW 10
Haines index....2      2      3      4      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2      2      4      14     30     32
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Isolated rain showers overnight.
CWR.................40 percent decreasing to 20 percent in the evening
                    and overnight, then decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds around 4 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (21400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........79     86     79     75     74     79
Weather cov.....SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD        ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CWR.............40     20     20     10     20     20
Temp............69     64     61     58     58     57
RH..............51     63     72     80     77     86
20 ft wind......S 7    SW 6   S 6    S 6    S 7    S 7
20 ft wind gust.10     8      8      8      9      9
Eye level wind..S 4    SW 4   S 4    S 4    S 4    S 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.6      5      5      5      5      5
Transport wind..S 10   S 10   S 8    S 7    S 8    SW 8
Haines index....5      4      3      3      3      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21     5      2      1      1      1
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds up to 7 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 14 mph increasing to 16 to 20
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (35700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........85           92           84
Weather cov.....             CHANCE       CHANCE
Weather type....NONE         RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                          S CHC
CWR.............10           30           50
Temp............57           65           71
RH..............86           75           53
20 FT wind......S 7G9        SW 6G9       S 9G13
Eye level wind..S 4G5        SW 4G5       S 5G8
Transport wind..SW 7         SW 9         SW 14
Haines index....2            4            4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1            5            12
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         POOR

$$
Forecaster...Rubin-Oster
Requested by...Collett
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411022.0/LWX
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jay.Collett@usda.gov