Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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531 FXUS64 KMAF 300520 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 WV satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving east of Texas today while weak ridging builds in, and a thermal ridge axis is displaced just to the west of the region. This should keep temperatures above normal the next few days, with upper 80s today and low to mid 90s tomorrow. While it`ll be a gorgeous day today, the dryline will sharpen up tomorrow as southerly surface flow in response to lee troughing helps usher in low-level moisture to the eastern CWA. A disturbance will move across West Texas on Tuesday, and this should be sufficient for storms to develop off the dryline in the afternoon and early evening, some of which may become severe. Sounding samples show a decent amount of CAPE just to the east of the region, around 1500-2000 J/kg, but shear remains marginal at best so the severe threat will be limited a bit. Still, the good ol` Pecos County supercell can`t be ruled out, as it is that time of year and some of the Hi-res CAMs continue to place a storm in that vicinity. Regardless of where storms initiate, the main threats will be damaging wind and large hail, primarily for the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Any and all storms should move east of the area by late Tuesday evening, and temperatures will remain mild overnight, mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. -Zuber && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Wednesday, the dryline is forecast to be along the Pecos River in the north, and as far west as Candelaria in the south, courtesy of a 35+kt LLJ Tuesday night advecting 70+F dewpoints up the lower Trans Pecos by sunup. By 18Z, the dryline in the south is forecast to move very little, whereas the northern half is forecast to extend through Seminole-Andrews-western Pecos County. Up top, southwest flow aloft is forecast, with a shortwave moving up from Chihuahua, setting things up for a possible afternoon/evening severe event. This is too far out for hi-res CAMs, but by afternoon, the NAM12 develops sbcapes along/east of the dryline in excess of 4000 J/kg, whereas the lower-res GFS still comes in with 2500+ J/kg. Given the pletora of boundary-layer moisture, this is not unreasonable. Long- range models increase deep-lyr shear along the dryline throughout the afternoon, to 40kts or better by 00Z Thursday. Steep mid-lvl lapse rates are a given, and low-lvl SRH cranks up after 00Z as the LLJ redevelops. Both the NAM and GFS develop the Pecos County supercell along the dryline, and this time of year, models would be suspect if they didn`t. West of the dryline, elevated fire wx conditions will be present due to critical RH. Highs should remain above normal. This severe convective activity should continue into the evening hours. Thursday, a cold front will approach the area, but may hang up diurnally depending on timing. Attm, it looks to shave a few degrees off temperatures in the north, and keep a chance of convection in the warm sector northeast, but the bulk of the CAA doesn`t arrive until after sundown Thursday. Instead, increased westerlies west of the dryline may combine with single-digit RH for critical fire weather conditions. Friday through the weekend, temperatures behind the front will be near or even below normal, increasing RH and providing a little respite from fire wx. Saturday, models bring a shortwave into the area through southwest flow aloft, for a chance of convection over most of the CWA. Chances will taper off W-E Sunday. Monday, thicknesses jump with the approach of the next upper trough, w/increased westerlies driving temperatures well-above normal, making Monday perhaps the warmest day this forecast as highs top out ~ 7-9F above normal. These increased winds will combine w/critical RH west of the dryline for another potential critical fire wx day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR prevails with relatively light south-southeasterly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 93 65 90 64 / 20 10 30 30 Carlsbad 93 55 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 94 69 90 67 / 20 10 30 20 Fort Stockton 95 65 92 62 / 20 10 40 10 Guadalupe Pass 83 58 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 90 57 92 57 / 0 0 10 10 Marfa 88 50 88 51 / 0 0 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 92 65 89 64 / 10 10 30 20 Odessa 92 66 90 64 / 10 10 30 20 Wink 95 63 95 61 / 10 0 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...16