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000
FXUS64 KMEG 142035
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
335 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather
to the Mid-South through Tuesday morning. Lows tonight and Monday
night will be in the upper 50s to 60s with highs on Monday in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as a cold front moves
through the region. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible. Additional rain chances along with cooler air are
possible towards next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

GOES-16 Satellite trends show a subtle and weak mid-level trough
moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This upper-level
feature only produced a few mid/high level clouds due to a ridge
of high pressure being present in portions of the Southeast
United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures have warmed
into the upper 70s to lower 60s this afternoon. Ample mixing and a
low-level jet present across the region has allowed the warmer
temperatures and elevated winds to mix to the surface.

Dry weather is expected to continue through Monday evening as
shortwave ridging remains in place across the region. Winds are
expected to decrease tonight as the low-level jet weakens across
the area. Temperatures will continue to be mild with highs on
Monday in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows Monday night in the
60s. Short-term model soundings and HREF guidance indicates a
potential for the increasing low-level moisture to produce some
stratus late tonight into Monday morning, especially south of
I-40.

An upper-level low over California is expected to push east into
the Central Plains on Monday and into the Upper Midwest by
Tuesday night. A tightening pressure gradient associated with an
accompanying surface low and the development of another low-level
jet will result in increased winds across the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. A Wind Advisory may be needed for Tuesday into Tuesday
night if NBM winds are correct with the low-level wind fields.

Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase across
the region later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as an
accompanying cold front slowly moves into the Mid-South. Current
short-term trends suggest the convective environment will be a low
CAPE/high shear environment characterized by LREF Ensemble
guidance showing surface-based CAPE values between 400-800 J/kg
and 0-6 km shear in excess of 50 kts. Additionally, model
soundings show some slight curvature in the hodographs to produce
some sufficient helicity. This may be enough for at least a few
strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday night with damaging winds
as the main threat and perhaps a tornado in this conditional
environment.

Instability is expected to be better on Wednesday as the front
continues to slowly move through the region. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible with shear will be somewhat
less and better upper-level support being displaced away from the
region.

Long-term model trends show another cold front dropping south into
the region for next weekend. This next system will bring
additional rain chances along with a drop in temperatures to the
Mid-South.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Gusty SSW winds today will gradually diminish this evening.
Becoming concerned about low clouds Monday morning as some data
indicates the possibility. However, latest HREF still showing low
probabilities so will hold off for now. Gradient on Monday will be
weaker so winds will not be as strong or gusty.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM