069
FXUS62 KMFL 081644
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1244 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

An expansive mid level ridge centered over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico will continue to build eastward towards South
Florida through the rest of this afternoon and into Thursday
while high pressure at the surface remains in place over the
western Atlantic. With a northwesterly wind flow aloft, a drier
air mass will push into the region this afternoon heading into
Thursday. This will keep the chances of showers and storms very
limited, however, there may be just enough lingering lower level
moisture across the Lake Okeechobee region to support an isolated
shower or storm where the sea breezes interact late this
afternoon. Any shower or storm that does develop will be short
lived and will quickly diminish after sunset due to loss of
diurnal heating. Low temperatures tonight will generally range
from the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the
mid to upper 70s across the east coast metro areas.

With many areas seeing a good deal of sunshine on Thursday, the
heat will return as high temperatures soar into the upper 80s and
lower 90s across the coastal areas while the interior sections
rise into the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values may reach the
triple digits especially across interior portions of Southwest
Florida in the afternoon on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

As we wrap up the week, the surface ridge axis will remain
sitting over South FL allowing for mostly sunny and dry conditions
on Friday. The warming trend will to continue with widespread 90
degree high temperatures across the region. Some inland portions
of South Florida could see temperatures reach the upper 90s. The
heat indices will approach the upper 90s into low 100s, especially
for the inland regions of the eastern counties.

The next frontal boundary will move across the southeastern United
States late Friday as a Canadian upper level low and trough make
their way into the eastern CONUS. With increasing moisture, it will
lead to our next opportunity for showers and thunderstorm activity
on Saturday. However, the front is expected to weaken as it
progresses across the FL Peninsula. Therefore, current models are
not forecasting much activity and rainfall associated with this
front as it moves south and settles across South FL through the
weekend. The EURO ensemble & Canadian are showing the most
confidence in rainfall with 30-50% chance of rain across land and
the Atlantic waters with less than 0.10" expected. Low confidence in
specifics at the moment due to varying forecasts between the models.
Temperatures will cool slightly with the additional cloud cover and
rainfall. However, Saturday appears it will be more of a transition
day where the temperatures could again reach well into the 90s, most
likely over the east coast metro. With heat indices approaching 100
again, caution needs to be taken when spending time outdoors with
heat safety measures in place.

When looking further into the extended outlook, temperatures
continue to remain above normal, in the 90s, with more active
weather to begin the start of the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Southeast winds ranging between 10 and 15 kts this afternoon will
gradually become light and variable as the evening progresses. At
KAPF, southwest winds will continue this afternoon before
diminishing this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will continue across
the Atlantic waters through tonight. These winds will gradually
become more southerly on Thursday and then southwesterly on Friday
as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Across the Gulf,
moderate southeasterly wind flow tonight will also gradually
become more south to southwesterly heading towards the end of the
week. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase
during the first part of the weekend as a frontal boundary moves
closer to the region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches
through Thursday while a moderate risk of rip currents remains in
place across the beaches of Broward and Miami Dade Counties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

As a drier air mass filters into the region, minimum relative
humidity values each afternoon through the rest of the week could
range between 30 and 35 percent over the interior portions of
South Florida. This could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions
across these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  91  75  92 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     74  91  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        75  91  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        75  89  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  76  89  75  91 /   0   0   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  75  90  75  92 /   0   0   0  10
Pembroke Pines   75  90  75  95 /   0   0   0  10
West Palm Beach  72  92  73  94 /   0   0   0  10
Boca Raton       75  89  74  94 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           74  89  76  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Simmons
AVIATION...CWC