555
FXUS62 KMFL 120611
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
211 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A weakening cold front has moved into South Florida on this Mother`s
Day morning. While lacking much support to mean much in terms of
cooler temperatures or wetting rainfall, the front could bring some
increase cloud cover initially to start the morning. As a low over
the central plains advances today, the front will retreat back
northward returning southern Florida back into a hot air mass for
Monday and Tuesday.

The lack of deeper moisture and support aloft for widespread
convection will mean that the only relief from the heat could be the
potential for some sea breeze showers (and maybe a thunderstorm) to
develop with peak heating in the afternoons and evenings over the
interior spine of the peninsula. The temperatures will continue to
be in the 90s across much of the area early in the week except for
sea breeze cooled areas along the coast. Triple digit heat index
values, particularly by Monday afternoon, point towards a developing
heat illness threat for the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A mid-level low will attempt to cut off from the mean flow aloft mid
to late week as it moves from the Mississippi River valley across
the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated surface cold
front will attempt to pinch the high pressure over much of the
peninsula of Florida south and east by late week but will not have
enough support to reach southern Florida. Accordingly, South Florida
will see an increase in low level moisture but will lack the
convective relief or change in airmass to help moderate
temperatures.

A window for hazardous heat could open by Wednesday that could
linger through the end of the week. Going beyond triple digit heat
index values, much of southern Florida could experience heat
necessitating either a Heat Advisory or potentially Excessive Heat
Warnings. Of particular concern mid to late week is that overnight
low temperatures along the east coast metro could struggle to fall
below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall
below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days
where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief
overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By next weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic
off the Mid-Atlantic states but not every solution shows a southward
advancement of the associated front. Therefore the forecast
uncertainty increases late Friday into Saturday. If the high
persists over South Florida, then likely will the heat. If the front
is able to reach the area, there could be some brief relief from the
heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SCT MVFR ceilings early this morning at APF, and then SCT MVFR
ceilings possible this afternoon across the east coast terminals.
Light westerly winds early this morning will veer northerly after
09Z and then become easterly this afternoon 10-15 kts with gusts
around 20 kts. APF will see a westerly Gulf breeze this afternoon.
Winds wane to 5-10 kts tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Winds will shift northerly this morning as a decaying cold front
moves across the waters. There might be enough lingering moisture
for additional showers to develop today, mainly over the Atlantic
waters. The high building back in for much of the week should lower
rain chances for the most part of the waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

There will be an elevated risk for rip currents today for the Palm
Beaches. The risk for rip currents will further increase for all
of the Atlantic beaches on Monday as easterly flow strengthens.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A relatively dry air mass will remain in place with minimum relative
humidity values around 30 to 40 percent over the interior
portions of South Florida. This combined with the lack of recent
wetting rainfall could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions
even with winds forecasted to remain below critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  77  88  80 /  10  10  20  10
West Kendall     92  75  90  77 /  20  10  20  10
Opa-Locka        91  76  90  78 /  10  10  20  10
Homestead        91  77  88  79 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  88  77  86  79 /  10  10  30  10
N Ft Lauderdale  87  77  87  79 /  10  10  30  10
Pembroke Pines   91  77  91  79 /  10  10  20  10
West Palm Beach  87  75  87  77 /  10  10  30  10
Boca Raton       87  76  88  78 /  10  10  30  20
Naples           90  75  92  78 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CMF