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000
FXUS62 KMHX 140735
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
335 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift off the SE coast today. Tomorrow, a
cold front will move into the region from the north late in the
day and stall, eventually lifting back north as a warm front on
Tuesday. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the
Southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the
area late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Tranquil conditions present early this morning
with high pressure ridging in from the SW and providing clear
skies and light winds. In places that have decoupled, temps have
dropped into the mid to upper 40s, while other areas remain in
the 50s. Expect more areas to decouple through sunrise as the
high continues to build overhead, and most inland spots should
reach the mid 40s for lows. Along the coast a light breeze will
continue and keep temps mostly in the 50s.

High pressure shifts off the SE coast today with warm and sunny
conditions expected across Eastern NC. Light winds are expected
through the morning hours, but eventually SW flow will develop
this afternoon with winds gusting 20-25 mph. Increasing low
level thicknesses will help boost temps into the upper 70s to
low 80s inland this afternoon, with low to mid 70s expected
along the coast (where highs will be reached early in the
afternoon before a strong sea breeze develops).

With a dry airmass still in place, and little to no low level
moisture advection occuring until late in the day, there is
potential for dewpoints to mix out into the 30s again, creating
critical RH conditions with values as low as 20%. This will
bring the potential for elevated fire danger conditions to
develop this afternoon with winds the only limiting factor
(mostly remaining under 25 mph).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Quiet but breezy conditions will persist
tonight with high pressure firmly established offshore. It will
remain mild despite mostly clear skies due to a stiff breeze,
and low temps will remain mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Had to make some tweaks to the forecast with
the biggest change occuring on Monday as trends have indicated
an increasing thunder threat with the potential for a few storms
to be strong to severe in nature.

Mon...Upper level pattern is denoted by NW flow aloft with both
northern and southern stream jets encroaching on the Carolinas
Mon evening. Weak mid level shortwave will be making its way
southeastwards reaching the area by Mon night while at the
surface a weakening cold front will dive S`wards and reach the
VA/NC border by Mon evening and eventually stall along the NC/SC
border late Mon night. This will promote shower and
thunderstorm development in VA with this activity then tracking
SE`wards into NC Mon evening.

Out ahead of this front, moisture will pool with PWATs increasing
closer to 1-1.25 inches across portions of southern VA and northern
NC. In addition to this, strong daytime heating will result in ML
CAPE`s around 500-1000 J/kg, with both NBM probs and GEFS probs
noting a greater than 50% chance for CAPES higher than 500 J/kg
especially across counties north of Hwy 264. Mid level lapse
rates will also be relatively high for this time of year getting
to about 7-8 C/km by Mon afternoon. With showers and
thunderstorms entering into this environment there is the
potential for some of these storms to become strong to severe in
nature with storm mode likely being a mix of individual cells
and small linear clusters. Strong winds (40-60 mph) and small
hail will be the primary hazards within the strongest storms.

The one limiting factor to all of this will be the weaker wind
shear over the region as 0-6 km shear will remain closer to 20-
30 kts. As a result this forecast is low probability but higher
impact at the moment with locations north of Hwy 264 recently
added to a marginal risk for severe weather by SPC (level 1 out
of 5). Otherwise high temps get into the mid to upper 80s inland
and into the 70s along the OBX, while lows dip down into the
60s.

Tue and Wed... By Tues upper level ridging builds over the
Eastern Seaboard while upper level troughing enters the Central
CONUS. At the surface stalled frontal boundary lifts N`wards as
a warm front Tuesday bringing a threat for some shower and
thunderstorm activity as lift and moisture begin to gradually
increase across ENC with the area likely remaining mo dry on Wed
as high pressure ridging briefly makes a reappearance across
the area. Temps generally remain above avg through midweek with
the warmest temps at occuring on Tue for everywhere but the
NOBX where NE flow may keep things much cooler here.

Thurs into next weekend...Evolution of the late week forecast
becomes a bit murkier with respect to exact details, but the
overall evolution hasn`t changed much. Expect an upper level
trough with associated shortwave to approach the Eastern
Seaboard on Thursday and move through the region by Fri. At the
surface this will bring a weakening cold front across the area
Thurs with a stronger one moving across ENC on Fri. Not
expecting much in the way of precip with the first front
outside of some additional cloud cover, with a better chance of
seeing some precip on Fri with the second front. Given the
large spread in guidance have capped PoP`s at slight chances for
now. Once better agreement amongst the models begins will
likely begin increase PoP chances across the area. There is some
potential for a third frontal boundary to impact the area next
weekend, however confidence is too low to mention any details
outside of the threat for more unsettled weather. Temps continue
to remain well above avg through Fri before cooling off behind
the front.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Early Monday Morning/...
As of 3 AM Sun...VFR conditions are present and are expected to
continue through tomorrow as high pressure continues to build
into the area and keeps skies clear. Winds will again increase
this afternoon to SW 15-25 mph, and remain breezy overnight.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 315 AM Sun...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast
through the TAF period with the only chances for sub VFR
conditions being within any shower or thunderstorm that makes
its way into ENC Mon evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Good boating conditions will continue today,
but conditions will deteriorate late this afternoon and tonight
as winds increase to just under Small Craft criteria.

Winds this morning will be light and variable, but eventually
come around to the S/SSW around noon at 5-10 kts. Winds will
increase late this afternoon to SW 10-20 kts, and then continue
at this strength tonight with some occasional 25 kt gusts
possible. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through this evening, and
then will increase to 3-5 ft by early tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun... High pressure ridging to the SE will keep
SW`rly winds at 10-20 kts across our waters on Mon before a cold
front tracks S`wards Mon night shifting the winds behind the
front to a N`rly direction at 5-10 kts. This frontal passage
also has a chance to bring some shower and thunderstorm activity
with it as it makes its way across our waters. Front eventually
stalls around Raleigh Bay and then lifts N`wards as a warm
front on Tue allowing winds to become S-SW`rly across all waters
at 10-20 kts by Wed with these winds persisting into the end of
the period. Seas will generally remain around 3-5 ft across our
coastal waters on Mon, lowering down to 2-4 ft on Tue and
remaining around 2-4 ft into the end of the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF/OJC
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF