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000
FXUS62 KMLB 131901
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

...Dry and Fire Sensitive Weather Expected into the Workweek...
...Temperatures Warm Sunday and into Next Week...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Currently-Tonight... High pressure (1028mb) continues to build over
over the Deep South and the Gulf of Mexico towards the state of
Florida which has resulted in northeast flow and another dry day for
east central Florida. Current temperatures are in the low 70s to low
80s with RH values in the mid 20s to mid 30s under clear sunny
skies. North to northeast winds at 10 to 15mph are forecast to
weaken and become variable overnight as high pressure moves across
northern Florida before settling offshore over the western Atlantic
into Sunday evening. Another chilly night is forecast with overnight
lows forecast to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s west of I-95 as
well as coastal Volusia county with the low to upper 50s along the
coast to the south under clear skies.

Sunday... High pressure will continue to build over the state of
Florida, before settling offshore over the western Atlantic into the
evening hours. As this occurs, onshore flow will develop over east
central Florida into the afternoon with east winds at 5-15 mph. Dry
conditions are forecast (relative humidity values as low as the mid
20s to low 40s) with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
along the coast and the low to mid 80s west of I-95 under sunny
skies.

Sun Night-Mon Night...Mid-level ridging over the SW GoMex extending
northward through the central CONUS will travel eastward across the
Gulf, Deep South, and Upper Midwest as a vigorous upper level system
pushes across the expansive western U.S. behind it. This will keep
NW flow aloft across the FL peninsula with occasional weak impulses
traversing the region. At the surface, high pressure to be
centered over the western Atlc with associated ridge axis reaching
back westward across the central FL peninsula will slowly begin
to move northward. Any fronts will continue to steer clear (north)
of the area with a weakening pressure gradient in place and
forecast lighter winds. We continue to advertise MSunny/MClear
skies with dry conditions day/night. Overnight mins into Mon
morning, mainly M-U50s, except some L60s along the Space/Treasure
coasts. Afternoon highs on Mon near 80F along the coast with
L-M80s (a few U80s) into the interior. Slightly warmer, again,
overnight with lows into Tue morning in the U50s to L60s.

Tue-Sat...The mid-level ridging will continue to build eastward
across the eastern GoMex and Deep South thru Tue-Tue night before
flattening by mid-week as it is knocked back by shortwave energy
traversing the Deep South. Surface high pressure centered over the
western Atlc with associated east-west ridging continues to lift
slowly north, before getting pushed further seaward with the
approach of a weakening cold front that continues to be
delayed until at least Sat (or Sun). There is some discrepancy if
this boundary washes out across central FL or returns northward
later in the weekend. Moisture and instability still remain
somewhat poor and will continue to keep the extended dry for now.
Surface winds do become onshore thru mid-week. Warming trend in
full-effect areawide with 80s and perhaps some L90s (interior)
Wed-Sat. Overnight mins well into the 60s areawide over the
remainder of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are forecast as high pressure continues to influence
the region. North-northeast winds at 8 to 15 knots this afternoon
are expected to become light and variable overnight, then veer
onshore into Sunday at 8-12kts with gusts to 22kts at KFPR, KVRB,
and KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Currently-Sunday... Boating conditions will continues to improve
through Sunday as high pressure moves overhead, before settling
offshore over the western Atlantic into Sunday evening. North-
northeast winds at 5-15kts will veer east at 5-12kts Sunday with dry
weather and sunny skies. Seas are expected to build to 2 to 4 ft
nearshore and 4 to 6 ft over the Gulf Stream through this evening,
then reduce to 1 to 3ft with up to 4ft in the Gulf Stream by mid-
morning Sunday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this
evening over the Gulf Stream.

Sun Night-Thu...Improving boating conditions with a weaker pressure
gradient in place (high pressure over the area) and wind speeds AOB
15 kts, but could approach a little higher values Tue night-Wed as
high pressure ridging breaks down and pushes seaward. Initial seas 2-
3 ft Sun night-Tue, then 3-4 ft Tue night-Thu. Daily sea breezes
forecast and conditions mainly dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Currently-Sunday... Fire sensitive to critical conditions are
expected through the weekend. North to northeast winds at 5 to 15
kts late this afternoon will veer onshore into Sunday afternoon at
around 5-12kts. Minimum RH values are expected to drop into the mid
20s to low 30s inland west of I-95, as well as nearshore Volusia
county with the mid 30s to low 40s along the coast to the south
Sunday afternoon. Additionally, a Moderate risk for Significant Fire
Potential is outlooked over central Florida Sunday.

Mon-Thu...Continued fire sensitive with Significant Fire Potential
ranging from Low to Moderate. 20FT ERLY winds on Mon up to around 10
mph, ESE on Tue/Wed 10-15 mph, and 7-12 mph Thu. Some higher gusts
can be expected. Lowest min RH values L-U30s W of I-95 on Mon-
Wed, M-U30s here on Thu. Warm-Hot temperatures forecast to
continue through next week. Conditions to remain dry well into the
extended. Next forecast front pushed back until at least Sat/Sun,
but slim chances for precip at this point with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  49  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  52  84  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  53  79  61  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  52  80  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  53  83  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  51  83  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  54  84  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  52  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fehling
LONG TERM...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling