908
FXUS62 KMLB 281945
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:
-High risk of rip currents at Atlantic beaches.
-Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue tonight.
-Slight rain and storm chances early this week.

Through Tonight...We have developed a healthy cu field this
afternoon, save for the coast where a sea breeze is embedded in
the easterly flow. A handful of stray showers / sprinkles have
dotted the shoreline this afternoon, but the subsidence inversion
resides just above H85 which is limiting appreciable shower
coverage for now. Into tonight, CAMs bring another batch of deeper
moisture from NE of the Bahamas toward our coastline by dawn.
Much of the night should be dry with only sprinkles noted east of
I-95, especially after midnight. Lows 65-72F near the coast, with
low/mid 60s in most inland locales.

Monday...A mid-level ridge axis scoots east of our longitude as
surface high pressure remains entrenched between Myrtle Beach and
Bermuda. E/SE winds continue but subside slightly as the pressure
gradient tries to relax a little bit. 28/12Z HREF members indicate
that the moisture profile deepens tomorrow (lowest 250 mb),
likely prompting somewhat better coverage of onshore-moving
showers. For now, we have a slight chance (20%) only along the
coast. Cloud- bearing winds veer more to the SE which could keep
the activity from getting quite as far inland as what we saw
yesterday. Partly sunny skies prevail again, with highs in the low
80s along the coast to the mid 80s from Clermont to Orlando to
Okeechobee.

Monday Night-Tuesday...Isolated rain chances are forecast to
continue Monday night, mainly along and east of I-95, as marine
showers work onshore. Locations along the Treasure Coast could pick
up to 0.20" of rain by daybreak Tuesday. Temperatures overnight into
Tuesday remain mild in the 60s, close to 70 degrees at the coast. An
upper ridge axis slides east on Tuesday as a weak mid level wave
moves across Florida. The resulting afternoon sea breeze may become
a bit more active, supporting showers and an isolated storm as it
pushes inland. Right now, the highest storm chances look focused
south of Melbourne, from I-95 along the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee
County.

Wednesday-Saturday...As mentioned in this morning`s forecast, the
pattern will remain largely unchanged through late week as high
pressure maintains its influence over the western Atlantic,
southeast U.S., and Caribbean. Drier air gradually intrudes from the
north Thursday into early next weekend, reducing cloud cover and
leaving room for plenty of sunshine. Therefore, a gradual increase
in daytime highs remains forecast from Wednesday onward, with inland
locations reaching the upper 80s to low 90s and coastal sites
staying slightly cooler due to the east coast sea breeze. Overnight
lows remain seasonable in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Persistence is the theme here with continued easterly winds in the
boundary layer from 10-15 KT, occasionally gusting to around 20 KT
through early evening. Much of the period will be rain-free with VFR
conds, however a 20% shower chance remains near coastal terminals
into Monday. Any MVFR CIGs should be rather brief in the vicinity of
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Tonight-Monday...Poor boating conditions stick around over the
local Atlantic. Seas will be slow to subside tonight as east winds
persist from 12-17 KT. Moderate ESE breezes continue on Monday
from 10-15 KT. So, expect seas 4-6 FT tonight to gradually taper
toward 3-5 FT tomorrow. Inshore/Intracoastal boaters will
experience a moderate chop. 20-30% chance of showers through the
period.

Tuesday-Thursday...Continued improvement to boating conditions is
forecast through mid week and favorable conditions will likely
last into early next weekend. SE winds 10-15 kt Tuesday slacken to
around 10-13 kt Wednesday and Thursday. Seas 3-4 ft nearshore
Tuesday, up to 5 ft offshore. By mid to late week, seas fall to
2-4 ft. Isolated showers and even a lightning storm or two is
possible over the waters, especially on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Monday...Steady east-southeast winds from 10-15 mph with gusts to
around 20 mph are expected. This will combine with RH minima from
35-40% generally west of Orlando to Okeechobee to, yet again,
prompt fire-sensitive weather conditions in the afternoon.

Tuesday-Saturday...Southeast winds persist 10-15 mph with gusts up
to 20 mph each afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values
recover a bit Tuesday before falling again into the 35-40 percent
range mid to late week, leading to fire-sensitive conditions each
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  81  65  83 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  63  86  65  86 /   0  10   0  20
MLB  69  81  68  82 /  10  20  10  30
VRB  68  83  66  83 /  10  20  10  30
LEE  63  86  65  87 /   0  10   0  20
SFB  63  86  65  86 /   0  10   0  20
ORL  64  86  66  86 /   0  10   0  20
FPR  67  82  65  83 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heil
LONG TERM...Schaper
AVIATION...Heil
DECISION SUPPORT...Weitlich