711
FXUS64 KMOB 070926
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
426 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

An upper-level ridge continues to reside over the Gulf of Mexico
throughout the near term period. Its ridge axis extends northward
into the Lower Mississippi River Valley this morning. This axis
will push east across our area throughout the day today.
Northwesterly upper flow this morning will increase and turn more
west-southwesterly after the axis passes. At the surface, a
persistent high pressure system over the western Atlantic
maintains southerly flow across our area, keeping us in a summer-
like pattern. Overall storm coverage today still remains rather
questionable, however. Although there is plenty of moisture and
instability in place, subsidence from the passing ridge axis may
help to limit coverage across the area, especially with a lack of
any large-scale lifting mechanisms to counter the subsidence.
However, taking into consideration that upper-level flow will
increase and shift directions after the passage of the ridge axis,
a brief corridor of weak upper-level diffluence may materialize
over our northwestern zones during the afternoon hours. Therefore,
have maintained isolated to scattered rain chances for areas west
of I-65 (generally a 20-40 percent chance). It should be noted
that although coverage should be rather low, storms that do
develop will be working with CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, DCAPE
values greater than 1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear of around
30kts, with straight-lined hodographs. Due to this favorable
environment, any storm that does develop could become loosely
organized, posing a localized threat for strong to damaging winds
and/or hail up to quarter-sized. SPC has included our
northwestern-most zones in a Marginal Risk of severe weather for
this afternoon due to this potential. Activity will quickly
decrease by the evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating.

By Wednesday, the main ridge begins to shift northeastward, nosing
further into our area during the day and helping to provide stronger
subsidence across the area. Overall, except for a very isolated pop-
up shower or storm over our northern counties, expecting Wednesday
to remain dry.

Temperatures will continue to climb through the period as subsidence
strengthens across the area and warm air advection from the Gulf
continues. Highs today will range from the low to mid 80s along the
coast to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees inland. Lows tonight
will only drop into low to mid 70s. Highs Wednesday will top out in
the mid to upper 80s over coastal counties to the low 90s inland.
This paired with dew points in the upper 70s will give way to heat
indices tomorrow of around 97 to 102 degrees for areas north of I-
10. The rip current risk becomes high today and will remain high
through the rest of the week. /96

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The weather pattern will become increasingly active later this
week as an upper level trough digs southeast from the upper
Midwest towards the Deep South by Thursday. Latest ensemble
guidance suggests an unseasonably deep trough for this time of
year represented by mid level heights that are two standard
deviations below the mean.

Initially, a lead shortwave trough will eject across the Mid South
and into the Tennessee Valley Wednesday night. This feature will
initiate widespread showers and thunderstorms to our north which
should sag southeastward with time into Thursday morning. These
storms should gradually weaken with southward extent but will
result in scattered showers and storms Thursday morning across
interior portions of southwest and south central Alabama. A
weakening outflow boundary initiated by this convection will
likely stall across northern portions of our forecast area by
midday Thursday.

A potent shortwave will dig through the base of the upper
level trough as it moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley by
late Thursday afternoon. Strong heating and low level moistening
in advance of this feature will result in the development of
strong instability across south central Mississippi and southeast
Louisiana, eastward across much of our forecast area.
Temperatures will likely warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s with
dewpoints in the middle to potentially upper 70s near the coast. Latest
multi model ensemble guidance still features a 30-40% probability
of a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment with
SBCAPES greater than 2500j/kg along with minimal CIN and deep
layer shear of greater than 40 kts over much of the forecast area
through late evening Thursday into early Friday morning. This
makes sense considering the hot and humid conditions that should
be in place. As the mid level height falls overspread this
favorable low level environment, expect thunderstorms to erupt
over south central Mississippi into southeast Louisiana by late
afternoon. Supercell thunderstorms with strong mid level
mesocyclones will likely evolve initially to our west and then
quickly grow upscale into a fast moving QLCS/squall-line as it
races east southeastward over our area. This system should bring
the threat for damaging winds and large hail as it moves across
across the north central Gulf Coast. Low level winds should remain
rather weak and veered with mainly long straight hodographs
expected. This will likely limit any tornado threat. We have
collaborated with SPC to initiate a Slight Risk for Severe Storms
over our area for Thursday evening into early Friday morning.

There may also be the potential for heavy rainfall and localized
mainly nuisance flooding as high rainfall rates within a moist
environment may result in a few inches of rainfall within an hour
or two. Overall, the setup is not favorable and should preclude a
more significant flash flooding potential as the QLCS should
remain forward propagating with fast storm motions which will
limit rainfall totals. In addition, antecedent conditions remain
dry with 1 hour flash flood guidance (FFG) between 2-4" and 3
hour FFGs between 4-6". Therefore, the flooding threat remains
rather marginal at this time. /JLH

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The shortwave trough will swing through the region on Friday with
a cold front advancing south across our area. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms may linger along the immediate coast to the east
of I-65 into Friday morning before moving east of the area by
afternoon. Cooler temperatures along with much lower humidity
levels should filter in along with a period of dry weather for
Friday night through the weekend. Low level moisture should again
increase by early next week as the frontal boundary to our south
returns back towards the Gulf Coast as a warm front. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front as it advances
back towards the coast. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of the
week, with seas offshore gradually building to around 3 to 5 feet by
the middle to latter part of the week. Slightly higher winds are
expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with
an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine
zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to
return for Friday and into Saturday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  73  89  74  88  69  83  60 /  10   0   0   0  10  60  40  10
Pensacola   85  74  87  76  85  72  83  63 /  10   0  10   0  10  50  50  10
Destin      83  75  85  76  84  73  82  64 /   0  10   0   0  10  40  50  10
Evergreen   90  70  91  71  90  66  82  55 /  10   0  10  10  40  70  60   0
Waynesboro  89  71  92  71  90  65  82  55 /  40  10  10  10  40  70  30   0
Camden      89  70  92  69  88  65  80  54 /  30  10  20  10  50  70  40   0
Crestview   89  69  91  70  90  68  84  57 /  10   0  10   0  20  50  60  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Friday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Friday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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