281
FXUS63 KMPX 100525
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1225 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/Freeze likely across portions of northwest Wisconsin tonight.

- Scattered thunderstorms, some potentially severe, Friday afternoon
across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Above-normal temperatures this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Isolated showers and blanketing stratus across western WI and
southern MN continue to retreat to the south as surface low pressure
progs east over the upper-Ohio River Valley region. Aside from
remnant scattered cu developing from peak daytime heating,
temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 60s. Tonight`s
forecasted lows will widely range from the upper 40s in western MN
to near freezing in portions of interior west-central WI.
Northeasterly flow combined with clearer skies will allow for some
areas in WI to see potential frost Friday morning. So if you have
any vegetation that is sensitive to temperature, you may want to
consider taking protective measures.

The main course for today`s discussion focuses on the forecast for
Friday. An upper-level shortwave over Saskatchewan and Manitoba
descends south over the northern plains beginning Friday morning. NW
winds will increase between 30-35 mph across western MN as it lays
on the periphery of the pressure gradient. Best forcing for precip
development looks to reach central MN and Western WI by Friday
afternoon. Consistent with the previous discussion, timing of
forcing arrival aligns with peak diurnal heating, thus an increased
potential of organized convection. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe convection Friday
afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings present an environment of
only a few hundred joules/kg of elevated MUCAPE and inverted-V
soundings. Therefore hazards look to mainly be limited to isolated
strong gusty winds and potentially some hail in the strongest
storms. QPF as of now looks to range between a few hundredths to a
quarter of an inch with Western WI have higher confidence of
observing near the quarter inch mark. Storms will quickly clear out
Friday overnight with lows in the 40s.

This weekend looks overall relatively quiet as the northern plains
falls under split flow. Winds will remain slightly increased with
gusts up to 25 mph along with RH values nearing 30 percent, elevated
fire weather conditions will exist. Saturday will be a great day to
get outside and enjoy temperatures in the upper-60s to mid-70s with
only scatted afternoon cu to disrupt plentiful sunshine. Sunday, the
maxima of the h85 thermal ridge will advect east and allow highs to
reach the low 80s for much of the area. A weak shortwave develops
over the Dakotas Sunday afternoon which could potential generate a
few showers however there is disagreement amongst long-term ensemble
membership, thus maintained NBM PoPs of 30 percent mainly east of
the I-35 corridor.

Looking into early next week, multiple shortwaves bring periods of
precipitation although QPF advertising only light rainfall
accumulations. An upper-level wave sweeps across the Northern CONUS
by the middle of next week which could be bit more robust but will
need to continue monitoring. Temperatures will range near
climatology for this time of year which is in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

SKC to FEW250 are expected throughout the period until around
18-20z when a chance for -TSRA arrives for eastern MN to western
WI, primarily affecting RNH/EAU with a slim chance for MSP/STC.
Otherwise a few gusts to 20-25kts are possible during the
daylight hours dropping back by 01-03z. VFR for all sites.

KMSP...The chance for -TSRA is less than a prob30 would cover
but is still non-zero, around 15 to 20 percent. CAM guidance
tonight suggests the activity should remain east of MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts.
MON...VFR. Wind N 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa-
     Eau Claire.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...TDH