Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
903 FXUS63 KMQT 142323 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 723 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and dry weather with borderline elevated fire weather conditions continues through Wednesday - Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are possible Thursday and again on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 143 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed in Missouri and a shortwave in the northern Rockies. The shortwave moves east into the northern plains by 12z Wed. Quiet and dry weather will continue through tonight and did not make too many changes to the going forecast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 526 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 The main story of the long term period is the transition from dry conditions and fire wx concerns to a period of unsettled weather. It`s important to note that even though rain chances become more common, most places will be dry most of the time associated with isolated rain showers instead of steady rain. These showers appear to be primarily forced by a frontal boundary that wavers back and forth across the area with each passing disturbance and forecaster confidence diminishes quickly after Thursday night. A few embedded thunderstorms cant be ruled out with each disturbance, but probably just generic thunderstorms without severe potential. Otherwise, temperatures trend above normal with Fri-Sun looking like prime spring weather with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 40s to around 50F. Starting with Wednesday, mostly sunny skies should warm temps well into the 60s across most of the UP with 50s immediately downwind of Lake Superior. Model soundings suggest poor nocturnal RH recovery tonight and we mix into a very dry mid-level layer on Wednesday. Despite increasing upper level clouds I`m reasonably confident that tomorrow`s min RH values will be lower than today due to dry easterly flow downsloping off the Canadian Shield. This dry air mass persists until a warm front lifts across the area on Thursday. This suggests another night with poor RH recovery, especially across the west where downsloping southeast winds keep the boundary layer well- mixed. Model guidance continues to trend slower with these rain chances and I have largely removed PoPs from Wednesday night and they don`t reach the far east until Thursday evening/night. Given the model trend and antecedent dry air mass, I`m pessimistic about rainfall amounts even though there are some hints at weak CAPE. The current forecast calls for generally less than 0.1" of rain by Friday morning and that seems reasonable. Despite diminishing forecaster confidence, there seems to be good agreement that lingering rain showers exit stage right Friday morning with a dry stretch continuing into Saturday. On Saturday morning, a sub-1000 mb surface low will be positioned near Lake Winnipeg that occludes while tracking east across northwestern Ontario by Saturday night. This system sends a warm front across the area Saturday morning leading to our warmest day of the extended period with interior locations possibly warming into the 80s. It`s unclear when the systems cool front moves across our area, but that feature likely represents the next rain chance. If it ends up moving through during the afternoon and evening then the probability of embedded thunderstorms increases. This front should clear the area Sunday morning leading to another dry stretch. EPS guidance suggests cyclogenesis along the remnant boundary over the Central Plains early next week that may track northeast into the Great Lakes region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 722 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 526 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue into Wednesday as surface ridging persists across Lake Superior. However, a weak low pressure tracks from the Northern Plains across the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday. Northeast winds increase up to 25 kts across the far western lake Wednesday through Thursday afternoon as this low pressure approaches. As the low pressure tracks across the lake Thursday, expect southeast winds to increase to around 20 kts across the central lake with light winds below 20 knots return Thursday night behind the low pressure. Light winds persist into the weekend. There is a slight chance (~15%) for a few rumbles of thunder on Thursday and perhaps again Saturday or Saturday night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...EK AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...EK