National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KOAX 241049
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
549 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected,
  beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend.

- Some severe weather is possible, especially during the
  afternoon and evening hours on Friday, Saturday, and perhaps
  Sunday.

- Flooding will also become an increasing concern due to
  the potential for repeated thunderstorm activity over the
  same areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.Today and Tonight:

A surface ridge axis extending from the Dakotas into central NE
early this morning will shift east through the mid-MO Valley
today as a lee trough deepens along the High Plains. Low to
midlevel warm advection developing to the west of the ridge axis
has fostered a broken band of elevated showers from southeast
WY into central KS. And, latest guidance indicates that
precipitation regime will spread east, eventually reaching our
area by late morning into this afternoon. However, forecast
soundings depict a considerable amount of dry air in the lowest
10 kft, and the current expectation is that most of the
precipitation will evaporate prior to reaching the ground.
At the least, we will see an increase in cloud cover today with
highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will be considerably
weaker today than in previous days with a light east or
northeast breeze this morning becoming southeast at 5 to 10 mph
by this afternoon.

Warm advection will further strengthen tonight with isolated
showers possible, especially across portions of southeast NE and
southwest IA.


.Thursday and Thursday night:

A vigorous shortwave trough will move into the central and
southern Rockies Thursday before advancing into the adjacent
High Plains Thursday night. In the low levels, a surface low
will deepen over eastern CO before developing into southwest NE
by Friday morning. Meanwhile, an associated warm front will lift
north through KS Thursday and into southern NE Thursday night.
In response to these developments, a southerly low-level jet
will develop over the central and southern Plains, which in
turn will enhance the transport of heat and moisture into the
mid-MO Valley, especially Thursday night. That destabilization
process will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
Thursday within a zone of modest warm advection occurring to the
north of the surface warm front.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become widespread
Thursday night with the arrival of stronger forcing for ascent
occurring downstream from the midlevel trough. While the
greatest severe weather threat is expected to remain to the
southwest of our area Thursday afternoon and evening, forecast
soundings indicate a moderately unstable air mass developing above
a shallow stable layer, which may support isolated occurrences
of severe hail. Localized flooding also is a concern, especially
in areas of training storms.


.Friday and Friday night:

The 00z global models are in good agreement in suggesting that a
vertically stacked low pressure system will develop from western
into central or eastern NE on Friday before pivoting northeast
of the area Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms may be
ongoing Friday morning; however, the northward advection of the
system dry slot should allow for cloud breaks and resultant air
mass destabilization by afternoon ahead of a Pacific front
approaching the area from the west. As a result, additional
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and
evening hours within an environment supportive of all severe
weather hazards, including flooding. The models indicate that
convective activity eventually moving northeast of the area
later Friday night in tandem with the low pressure system.

The forecast will indicate highs in the 70s on Friday, though
those numbers could end up lower in areas of persistent clouds
and precipitation.


.Saturday and Saturday night:

It appears that a surface boundary will stall across the area on
Saturday with a break in shower and thunderstorm chances during
the morning into early afternoon. High temperatures will range
from the 60s over northeast NE to 70s or even low 80s south of
the front in southeast NE and southwest IA. Later Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night, another significant midlevel
trough will pivot across the southern into central Plains. In
the low levels, a surface low will deepen while developing from
western into n-central KS with the above-mentioned boundary
lifting north through our area as a warm front. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop by late afternoon into evening, along
and south of the surface front with all severe weather hazards
again possible.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue overnight
Saturday with an increased risk for flooding given the
anticipated, earlier rounds of thunderstorms.


.Sunday and Sunday night:

The models have slowed the progression of the midlevel trough
and associated surface low through the area Sunday, and now it
appears that a severe weather threat could materialize during
the afternoon into evening hours, especially over western IA.
Based on this latest model information, the showers and
thunderstorms would move out of the area later Sunday night.

The forecast will indicate Sunday`s highs ranging from 50s in
northeast NE to 70s in southeast NE and southwest IA.


.Early next week:

Drier conditions are expected with highs in the 60s Monday
warming into the 70s to around 80 by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Calm northerly winds will gradually shift to
southeasterly after sunrise. Winds will increase to speeds of 10
kts through the afternoon. Potential for rain showers will move
into the area during the last few hours of the forecast period.
Confidence is low in the coverage of these showers and it
therefore has been left out of this TAF issuance.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Wood