321
FXUS64 KOHX 051038
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
538 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The new day 3 convective outlook from the SPC paints a slight risk
across most of Middle Tennessee, with a marginal risk for parts of
the Cumberland Plateau and our southern parts. And the latest day
4 outlook now includes all of Middle Tennessee in the 15% risk
area. So we`ve begun messaging about the severe storm potential
for Tuesday & Wednesday. In the near term, the radar is echo-free
for Middle Tennessee and we likely won`t start to see any
convective development until the afternoon, with more widespread
development occurring during the evening and overnight as the next
shortwave approaches the mid state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Most of the earlier convection has either dissipated or exited
Middle Tennessee, and we don`t expect much redevelopment until
this afternoon. A surface boundary sits to our northwest and will
swing across the mid state during the next several hours. This
will enable an upper trough and associated surface low to rotate
through the region later tonight and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The weather pattern for the upcoming week is a series of troughs
and surface boundaries. So we will keep relatively high PoPs
through Thursday night, with a strong cold front coming through at
that time and hopefully bringing us cooler, drier weather just in
time for the weekend. Of particular interest is Tuesday and
Wednesday, when instability looks to be greatest. If we were to
experience any severe storms this week, it would likely be those
two days. Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday,
with more seasonal readings returning on Friday and staying put at
least through Sunday. Cumulative QPF values from today through
Friday range from 2-3" most areas, with some spots near the TN/KY
state line potentially looking at 3+ inches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for this TAF cycle, but with
small dew point depressions and light winds, MVFR fog is possible
shortly before sunrise. More TS will move in tomorrow evening and
likely affect CKV/BNA/MQY before 05Z.

Winds will be light and mainly southwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  66  80  67 /  30  80  80  30
Clarksville    82  64  78  66 /  30  80  80  30
Crossville     79  61  75  61 /  40  60  80  40
Columbia       85  64  80  65 /  20  80  70  30
Cookeville     80  63  77  63 /  40  70  90  40
Jamestown      80  61  76  61 /  50  50  80  50
Lawrenceburg   85  64  80  65 /  20  80  70  30
Murfreesboro   86  64  81  65 /  30  80  70  30
Waverly        85  64  79  66 /  30  80  70  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Unger