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000
FXUS64 KOHX 211033
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
533 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A weak shortwave and a front to our south has resulted in showers
across the southeast U.S. this morning. While some of this rain
has shown up across southern Middle TN, these features are far
enough south to keep any rain this morning light at less than a
tenth of an inch. Otherwise, a fairly quiet end to the weekend is
in store with persistent northerly winds keeping our temperatures
cool with highs in the 50`s to low 60`s. Cloud cover will clear
this afternoon and tonight, and with clear skies and light winds,
low temperatures will fall into the 30`s. This will likely lead to
patchy frost as we head into Monday morning.

Monday looks to be a beautiful day as temperatures begin to
rebound under sunny skies. Highs should warm up into the mid and
upper-60`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Most of this upcoming week still looks to be fairly quiet, and
temperatures will continue their warming trend with highs back
into the 70`s by Tuesday and then into the 80`s by Friday and next
weekend. There is still an upper-level trough that passes to our
north Tuesday night, sending a weak cold front through the area.
This may result in additional light rain mainly for areas along
and north of I-40, but rain totals look to be around to less than
a tenth of an inch.

For the next chance of rain and thunderstorms, that still looks to
be beginning on Friday and continuing into the weekend as an
active pattern sets up. Late this week, a large upper-level low
digs into the southwestern U.S., and then tracks northeast
through the Great Plains. This sets up southwesterly flow over our
area, allowing for deep moisture advection. While there`s a wide
range of model solutions this far in advance (as expected),
probabilistic guidance does show the possibility of a moist and
unstable airmass in place with medium chances (50-70%) that CAPE
values are able to get above 500 J/kg. Certainly something to keep
an eye on as we head into Friday and Saturday.

Yet another upper-level low digs into the southwestern U.S. by
Sunday and looks to track northeast through the Great Plains early
next week, potentially keeping an active pattern going beyond this
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period at all airports with
overcast cigs today scattering out by this evening. VCSH will
impact CSV/SRB early this morning, but otherwise no precipitation
is anticipated. North winds will increase after 15Z with gusts up
to 25 knots at times through 00Z, before decreasing to 5-10 knots
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  37  67  44 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    59  35  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     56  32  62  39 /  20   0   0   0
Columbia       60  35  66  41 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     57  34  62  41 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      56  33  62  39 /  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   60  36  66  41 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   60  34  67  40 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        60  36  67  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Shamburger