Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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469 FXUS64 KOHX 070139 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 839 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 819 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Thunderstorm activity definitely over-performed today with several severe storms producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. Isolated activity remains across the area late this evening with the strongest storms located along the Cumberland Plateau. While these storms may continue to produce small hail and gusty winds, the severe threat is diminishing and will continue to diminish as we lose daytime heating. As for tomorrow`s severe weather threat, thinking hasn`t changed much from the earlier discussion below. Next round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon where daytime heating and plenty of instability will allow for pop-up storms. Latest runs of the HRRR don`t show much convection in the afternoon and what does develop looks to be poorly organized. But as a weak frontal boundary moves into Middle TN tomorrow night, that should provide more forcing for better organization. Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and into the overnight hours will be capable of producing hail and damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Humid conditions in place across the area this morning. Temps are in the 60s and lower 70s. The earlier shower and thunderstorm activity moved out earlier. We did get some isolated wind damage in our southwest. Also...isolated 2-4 inch rainfall amounts across Humphreys and also the Van Buren and Cumberland county areas. For today, plenty of instability in place. Dynamics are a bit weak but we should see some isolated to scattered activity fire in the afternoon. Will need to watch those aforementioned rainfall areas as a flood advisory or two may be needed. Otherwise, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with some high winds and some hail possible later this afternoon. The convection should calm down for tonight but the humid and muggy conditions will continue. On Tuesday, some storms will fire but mainly in the afternoon. Organization looks rather weak and convection may hinge on outflows and heating. The slight risk which is in place does appear to be aligned with Tuesday night when a dissipating frontal boundary pushes some forcing into our area. Given the humid airmass, instabilities will remain in play into the overnight hours. The severe threat will include wind and hail potential. Wednesday appears to be the biggest severe threat. We are currently outlooked with an enhanced risk across our northwest. It looks to be a 2 wave event. The first and weaker wave, will occur Wednesday afternoon. some weak pre frontal forcing may tap into an increasingly unstable environment. Mid level Lapse rates and shear levels will be on the increase. I`d say isolated to scattered severe storms could impact the mid state as the storms move east northeastward. Wave #2 appears to be the main event. Models continue to trend toward later with each run. Though synoptics dont look classically dramatic, the forcing/instability/shear phasing looks about as good as it has all spring. Case in point, the omega fields are well organized and phase with 1500 j/kg cape, -7 showalter values, 850 mb wind speeds of 45kts, and ml laps rates of 7C to 8C at 06Z. Damaging winds, large hail, a tornado or two, and heavy rainfall will all be possible. Those rainfall amounts will average 1- 2 inches for Wednesday/Wednesday night. For the near term temps, its looking steady state and rather muggy. Lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 In the extended forecast, the first of 2 fronts will move through early Thursday. The second will move through Thursday night and bring some cooler air. A series of northwesterly impulses will bring off and on showers into the weekend but nothing noteworthy. Temperatures will cool down behind the Thursday fropas and actually dip below normal for the weekend. You can look for lows 45 to 55 and highs generally in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Scattered thunderstorms will die down over the next 3 hour across the area. IFR/LIFR can be expected in any thunderstorms due to low vis, low cigs, and heavy rain. VFR conditions overnight. A slight chance for showers tomorrow morning with lower cigs that may fall to near MVFR. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible once again tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds under 5 knots through the overnight picking up after 16z with gusts up to 22 knots possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 67 85 69 86 / 40 50 70 60 Clarksville 66 83 67 84 / 20 50 70 60 Crossville 61 80 64 80 / 70 60 80 70 Columbia 65 84 68 87 / 20 50 70 60 Cookeville 63 81 66 82 / 70 60 80 70 Jamestown 60 81 64 82 / 70 60 80 70 Lawrenceburg 66 84 69 85 / 20 50 70 60 Murfreesboro 64 85 68 87 / 40 50 70 60 Waverly 67 83 66 85 / 20 60 70 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Mueller