Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 282021
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
421 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure tracks up the Atlantic coast and passes east
tonight and into Friday. A series of weak waves of low pressure
will track close to the area Saturday night into early next
week. A deepening area of low pressure will then track across
the Lower Great Lakes region Tuesday into Tuesday night, becoming
nearly stationary across the Northeast for the middle of next
week. The associated frontal system will impact the area during
this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A secondary cold front is slowly moving through the area allowing
for a focus for a plume of moisture ahead of a coastal low to advect
into the area. A jet streak over the area and down stream of the
approaching trough is providing for ample deep level ascent which
is providing for widespread rainfall to continue into tonight.

Though rain has lessened in intensity for western portions of the
area, another wave of moisture will make its way into the region on
the northwestern side of the approaching coastal low. This will
allow rainfall to fill back in by this evening and persist through
much of the first half of the night. Rain should then slowly
continue to end from west to east into the early morning hours as
the coastal low pushes into the Canadian Maritimes.

Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 30s for much of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The coastal low continues to progress further northeast into
Southeast Canada with high pressure building in from the west into
Friday. This will allow for gradually clearing skies during the day
Friday. The tight pressure gradient over the area on Friday will
also allow for gusty NW winds to develop, possibly upwards of 30-35
mph, especially near the coast. Highs on Friday will be in the low to
middle 50s.

Gusty NW flow continues Friday night as weak high pressure continues
to move in from the west and the strengthening low pressure to the
northeast moves into Southeast Canada. Winds will begin to relax a
bit late in the night and into early Saturday. Lows will be in the
low to middle 30s for inland areas with temps near 40 for the NYC
metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A nearly zonal flow at the start of the period will allow for
multiple waves of low pressure to track close enough to the area
for chances of mainly light rain. The first of which will bring
in a low chance for rain late Saturday afternoon and night,
followed by weak high pressure on Sunday. Another wave passes to
the south Sunday night into Monday, with another shot of weak
warm advection rain. A cutoff low over the Great Basin then gets
kicked eastward out into the Northern/Central Plains Monday,
and then across the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This
will be associated with a deepening surface low that sends a
warm front toward the area Monday night into Tuesday, followed
by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. There are differences in
the globals in the timing and evolution of the energy that
lifts out of the intermountain west, but there are commonalities
with an overrunning rain during this time. It also looks like
the area remains north of the warm front, but could come close
with marginal instability and perhaps some embedded convection
Tuesday night. It`s too early to be too specific with the
details. Digging jet energy across the Great Lakes on Wednesday
leads to a closed off upper low that tracks into the Northeast.
Cyclonic flow and the potential for secondary low formation in
the vicinity of New England would keep clouds and low chances of
precipitation into Thursday.

Temperatures will be several degrees above normal over the
weekend with daytime highs in the mid and upper 50s, with lows
in the upper 30s inland, and in the 40s at the coast. Unsettled
conditions and easterly flow to start the week will result in
cool, damp conditions with temperatures at or just below normal
for highs, but slightly above normal for lows due to cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front eventually gives way to low pressure offshore
moving northeast during the TAF period.

Rain will linger across most of the terminals into the evening. Rain
may occasionally pass by KSWF with much of it to the SE by this
evening, so mainly dry conditions anticipated there. For much of the
rest of the terminals, the rain will taper off late tonight from
west to east. KGON will have some rainfall early Friday morning
before the rain tapers off there for latter half of Friday morning.

MVFR ceilings will continue through the rest of this afternoon into
early evening for most terminals except for KISP and KGON where IFR
will be more likely. For tonight, eventual improvement to VFR
expected for all terminals except east of NYC terminals for KISP and
KGON where mainly IFR will continue. KISP has improvement to MVFR
late tonight and for KGON, improvement to MVFR early Friday morning.

Winds will be northerly near 10 kt this afternoon. Tonight into
Friday, winds will be more NW. The wind speed increases to 10-15 kt
this evening, and then increases to 15-20 kt overnight into Friday.
Gusts develop this evening to near 20 kt and then mainly in the 25-
30 kt range overnight into Friday.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of IFR before 00Z. Gusts to 20 kt could develop 1-2 hours
earlier than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR at
night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W wind gusts near 20 kt
day. Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into
early evening.

Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.

Tuesday: Rain with MVFR or lower conditions. E wind gusts near 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds increase tonight as a low pressure system approaches the area
from the south. Gusts will be 25-30kt over all waters tonight and
through much of the day Friday so a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for all waters. While there may be an occasional gust to 35
kt on the ocean tonight, gusts will not be widespread enough to
warrant a gale warning.

Strong wind gusts of up to 30 kt will be possible for all waters
through Friday afternoon. Winds may increase a bit by Friday evening
such that near gale force gusts will be possible on the ocean zones.
A Gale Watch is in effect for 00Z Saturday through 10Z Saturday. All
other waters will see SCA conditions with gusts up to 30 kt.

SCA conditions will linger on the ocean waters into Saturday
behind departing low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes.
Elsewhere, brief SCA gusts are possible in the morning. Winds
and seas will gradually subside through the day with sub-SCA
conditions likely by evening. The next chance for a SCA will be
on Tuesday in a strengthening easterly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Up to another inch of rainfall is possible tonight across the
eastern half of the CWA. This should not provide for any hydrologic
impacts.

Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW


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