653
FXUS66 KOTX 062154
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
254 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect cool, windy, and showery conditions for the start of the
work week as a trough of low pressure remains over the Inland NW.
Then a ridge of high pressure builds into the region, giving way
to warmer and drier weather by midweek that continues into the
weekend. Next weekend has the potential to deliver our warmest
temperatures of the spring so far.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday: Evening convection will calm as day time
heating cools. The isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will
diminish along with the winds. The rain potential for has
decreased from previous runs with chances limited to the Cascades
and Idaho Panhandle. Amounts are not expected to exceed 0.1" with
most just receiving a few hundreths. Winds will are still expected
to be breezy and more widespread across the Columbia Basin. The
wind gusts have slightly weakened from previous forecast.
Strongest winds will again be in the East slopes of the Cascades
reaching into the low 40 MPH range. The Palouse could also see
gusts near 40 MPH. Winds will calm late Tuesday as the cold front
exits. Temperatures will be 50s to low 60s for highs and 30s
and low 40s for overnight lows.

Wednesday through Sunday: Ensembles continue to be in decent
agreement of a ridge pattern developing along the coast during
this period. It will bring an unseasonable dry, warm trend to the
region. There will be diminishing mountain shower activity through
Wednesday. High temperatures will increase a few degrees each day
from the prior day. The region can expect widespread 80
temperatures by the weekend. These will will be 10-15 warmer than
normal. The Central Basin could see some locations reach into the
low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s. /JDC

.HYDROLOGY...
The unseasonably warm temperatures this weekend will increase the
high mountain snowmelt in the northern Cascades, Selkirks, and
northern Panhandle mountains. This will give way to rises in flows
on the creeks and rivers in the east slopes of the Cascades,
Okanogan Highlands to the northern ID Panhandle. Due to the lower
mountain snowpack, the additional rises should bring streamflows
to normal levels. A few river basins may near bankfull conditions,
although the threat of river flooding remains very low (less than
10%) across the Inland NW. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Our band of rain over north Idaho tied to a weakening
cold front has largely dissipated this morning. By 19-21z daytime
warming will lead to scattered convective showers across eastern
Washington. Showers will move east around 30kts into the Spokane,
Coeur d`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston air spaces between 21-02z.
Smaller airports like Colville, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and
Kellogg as well. A few of the stronger cells this afternoon will
be capable of lightning and pea hail. It will be a typical windy
day for April with westerly wind gusts in the range of 20-30 kts.
/GKoch

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Amendments may be necessary to improve the timing of showers this
afternoon. Overall the thunderstorm threat is low. The probability
for lightning at GEG, SFF, COE, PUW, and LWS is less than 20
percent. Lightning headed in the direction of these airports will
be handled through short-term amendments. /GKoch

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  60  38  65  41  75 /  30  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  35  57  38  62  41  73 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Pullman        34  53  36  57  38  69 /  50  10  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       41  60  43  64  44  77 /  40  10  10   0   0   0
Colville       33  61  36  69  38  77 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      36  56  40  62  40  72 /  40  20  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        36  50  39  57  42  70 /  60  50  30  20   0   0
Moses Lake     39  64  37  72  41  80 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      41  59  40  71  47  78 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           37  65  38  74  44  82 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$