784
FXUS64 KOUN 282013
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
313 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Though chances remain low at this time, we are watching for the
potential of thunderstorm development this afternoon for areas
generally south of I-40 and east of I-35 from 1 PM through 6 PM.
The primary upper low pressure system that brought last night`s
severe weather still remains to our northwest (centered over
southwest Nebraska) with small vorticity lobes currently in the
vicinity of central Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico/TX panhandle.

This could provide sufficient dynamic ascent within this area
this afternoon for storm development, should the atmosphere be
able to recover from last night. There is a trend of some
atmospheric recovery to our south, and given the 12Z model output,
there is some concern that storm development could impact teams
that are currently assisting with search and rescue and post-
event clean up. Guidance indicates moderate instability is
possible with plenty of 0-6 bulk shear which could mainly lead to
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Again, confidence in severe development in this area is very low.
hHowever, the environment may be there if recovery can be
achieved.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Latest radar shows showers have developed over south-central into
east-central Oklahoma with lightning probable shortly with the
shower in Carter County with isothermal reflectivity at -10C at
almost 40 dBZ. SPC mesoanalysis page shows weak to moderate mixed-
layer instability and strong bulk shear (0-6km layer) over this
area. Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon across this
area but there is high uncertainty as to the strength/severity
given the atmosphere should be worked-over and storms currently
ongoing across central Texas could limit storm potential here.
Nevertheless, there are signals from the CAMS that a few storms
could produce some hail up to quarter-size and damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph. There is a very low tornado threat for an area
along/east of a line from Holdenville to Ada to west of Madill
where low-level shear (0-1km) is prog`d at around 20 to 30 knots
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should exit our CWA by
early this evening.

Skies are forecast to clear for most of the area tonight with low
temperatures mostly in the 50`s. Early tomorrow morning, patchy
fog could develop over parts of south-central to southeastern
Oklahoma and potentially parts of western north Texas. Tomorrow,
mostly sunny skies are forecast with high temperatures in the 70`s
and 80`s. There is a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms over
northwestern Oklahoma in the afternoon. Any storms that develop
should remain below severe-limits and produce some gusty winds.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

This upcoming week appears to be relatively active pattern with
the potential for severe storms and flash flood on Tuesday
(marginal risk for both), Wednesday (slight risk for both), and
possibly Thursday (slight risk of flash flooding over the
southeast).

By Tuesday, the dryline becomes better defined once again over
the Texas panhandle as a shortwave passes across the north-
central plains and as a cold front approaches from the north. The
greatest dynamic ascent appears to be north of our area and storm
chances remain fairly low for Tuesday.

By Wednesday, a shortwave appears to dig as it nears the Rockies
and there are slightly better rain/storm chances across much of
the area with a slight risk of severe weather and excessive
rainfall.

While we are not outlooked yet for Thursday, the prog`d synoptic
pattern would favor severe weather as a cold front begins to move
through. There remains timing differences on the approaching
upper trough. Highest rain chances of the forecast period occur on
Thursday afternoon with likely POPs east of Hwy 81.

Beyond then, there are daily rain chances with somewhat cooler
temeratures end of next week.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Rain has moved east of most of our sites, outside of KDUA, but IFR
ceilings will remain at several of our central and southern sites
through mid morning. Clearing is then expected with VFR
conditions and relatively light winds through the rest of the
day and tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  54  80  61 /  20   0  10   0
Hobart OK         79  51  82  60 /   0   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  81  56  84  62 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           76  46  82  57 /  10   0  20   0
Ponca City OK     79  49  78  58 /  40  10  10  10
Durant OK         78  59  83  60 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...08