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000
FXUS64 KOUN 132319
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

 - Storms/Severe Weather Late Monday into early Tuesday

 - Gusty Winds/Fire Weather Conditions Tuesday


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Southerly winds will remain breezy tonight with lows in the 50s and
low 60s.

Winds will shift to the southwest Sunday but are not expected to be
as strong as today, especially in NW/N OK where a weak sfc trough is
expected to move into the area. Winds here will become light and
could briefly shift towards the north before shifting back towards
the south later in the day.

Hot temperatures are expected Sunday with highs ranging from the mid
80s to mid 90s. Low RH is also expected with min RH of less than 20%
across the NW third or so of the fa. With these conditions, elevated
fire weather conditions could be possible but with the relatively
lighter winds, especially in areas where vegetation is the
driest/slow to green up, the elevated conditions will likely not be
too widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Main Concerns:

- Storms/Severe Weather Late Monday into early Tuesday

- Gusty Winds/Fire Weather Conditions Tuesday

Models continue to show an upper low/trough moving across the
Rockies into the central/southern Plains Monday into Tuesday. Models
continued the trend of being a bit slower and now has the upper low
moving into the Plains a little further north. Meanwhile, at the sfc
a dryline will approach and could move into western parts of the fa
Monday although the trend continues to be farther west with this
boundary with several models keeping the dryline west of the 100th
meridian until a Pacific cold front takes it over and moves east
across the fa Monday night. With the later timing of the upper
system, cloud cover, and an EML, storm development is expected to
begin later compared to what models were showing a few days ago.
Storm development is expected to become more likely Monday evening
as the dynamic forcing associated with the upper system begins to
spread into the region. Severe storms will be possible with damaging
winds being the largest concern although all hazards are possible.
The storms are expected to eventually develop into one or more lines
that moves across the fa Monday night into early Tuesday. Damaging
winds and maybe QLCS tornadoes will become bigger concerns when
these line(s) develop. The storms are expected to exit the area
Tuesday morning.

Overall there will not be much of a temperature change so highs in
the 80s will continue through Wednesday. Gusty winds are expected
Tuesday. These winds combined with the warm temperatures and drier
air that is expected to move into the region will lead to
Elevated/Near Critical to maybe isolated areas of Critical fire
weather conditions Tuesday afternoon, especially in those areas
where vegetation is the driest and slow to green up although a
mitigating factor could be rain late Monday and Monday night.

Models show a strong cold front moving across the area Wednesday
night/Thursday although there are some differences in timing. Cooler
air is expected to move into the fa behind this front dropping
temperatures down to at or below average for the end of the week
with lows back down in the 30s in parts of N OK next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Gusty winds will diminish some over the first couple of hours of
the forecast period. However a strengthening LLJ will result in
LLWS at all sites except CSM/WWR. Other than a few high clouds
across the south, skies will remain clear. Gusty south winds will
continue across much of the area on Sunday. DUA could see MVFR
ceilings develop just before sunrise and may linger through much
of the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  89  65  82 /   0   0   0  20
Hobart OK         56  90  61  84 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  62  90  66  84 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           51  92  55  86 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     60  90  63  84 /   0   0   0  20
Durant OK         61  85  65  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30