Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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169 FXUS63 KPAH 020813 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 313 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures will continue through the entire forecast, along with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. - Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact the Quad State late this afternoon through Friday. - Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected over the weekend. - Next week, a more robust convective environment will develop across the Quad State, leading to some potential for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Upper ridging from the Gulf of Mexico northeast through the Appalachians and on through the northeast will persist through the 7 day forecast. It will at times attempt to build back westward over the Quad State, but in general, weak southwest flow aloft will be the rule through at least the weekend. Early next week, the flow will increase and become more west southwest. At the surface, south winds will develop today and then become light and variable tonight through much of the weekend. Early next week, more robust southerly low-level flow will develop over the region. Weak disturbances in the southwest flow aloft will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region through the weekend. The first will bring some isolated convection to western portions of the region late this afternoon and then more widespread convection will overspread the region tonight into Friday. The convection could linger over the southeast half of the area through Friday night. In general, instability and wind fields will be weak. Very strong and deep mixing will generate some very steep low-level lapse rates this afternoon, so if a thunderstorm can get going in the heat of the day, it could produce isolated gusty winds. In general, storms tonight through Friday will be weak and short-lived. Saturday will likely be dry for most of the region. However, there is a small chance of showers lingering in the far southeast, and some model guidance attempts to bring convection eastward into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late Saturday into Saturday evening. Another disturbance will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region Sunday afternoon through Monday. Wind fields and instability will remain relatively weak through Monday, so any thunderstorms should be rather weak. For Tuesday and beyond, west southwest flow aloft will strengthen, resulting in increased low-level southerly flow and more robust moisture return to the Quad State. This should create better instability and stronger wind shear by Tuesday afternoon, which would support a better chance of severe storms and heavy rainfall. This threat will continue through at least next Thursday. While the general environment will be sufficient to support a severe storm and heavy rainfall risk, confidence in timing details is low at this time. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 For the 06z TAFs, the last of the evening isolated showers and thunderstorm activity will lift north the region, with only passing mid- and high-level clouds expected overnight with light and variable winds. After 14z, winds will pick up from the south sustained at 6-8 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts in the afternoon. FEW-SCT high-based CU around 6kft will also develop in the afternoon. After 03/00z, shower and thunderstorm activity will approach the region from the west. CGI, PAH, and MVN will see impacts prior to 06z, mainly in the form of -SHRA, but did include PROB30 groups after 03z for limited -TSRA potential. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DWS