343
FXUS65 KPUB 110955
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Rounds of rain and higher elevation snows showers will
   continue through this evening with embedded thunderstorms
   especially this afternoon. Locally heavy snowfall possible
   with convective snow bursts but impacts look to remain above
   pass level for now.

 - Wet end to the weekend, with snow showers along the
   mountains, and rain showers and thunderstorms elsewhere.

 - Unsettled weather prevails much of next week, especially the
   later half of the week. &&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Upper low will continue to lift slowly east northeastward into the
Four Corners region this afternoon and into southern CO late
tonight. Waves of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will
lift out across southern CO as embedded shortwave energy ejects out
of the eastward advancing upper low.  Diffluence pattern remains
over the region with upper lift and some surface based heating
expected to increase over the region this afternoon.  High res
models are timing another round of showers this morning followed by
another convectively enhanced round this afternoon.  Snow levels
overnight have remained above 9000 feet with mountain passes such as
La Veta remaining mostly wet even under the heavier snow showers
from CDOT cams. Snow levels are expected to lift this afternoon to
around or above 10000 feet and although snowfall intensities will
increase and could briefly drive down snow levels, think impacts on
travel will be limited to brief periods of slushy conditions at pass
levels with main accumulations above 10000 feet.  Given the warmer
temperatures today, no winter highlights have been issued, but this
will need to be monitored closely as convective influence increases
this afternoon. For now expecting warmer temperatures to mitigate
impacts from higher elevation snows at pass levels.

For the lower elevations (valleys and plains) this will be an all
rain event with afternoon thunderstorms possible.  Could see some
small hail with embedded stronger cores.  CAPE still looks rather
limited with HREF showing mean values in the 100-250 range but some
pockets of a little over 500 J/kg possible across the San Luis
Valley into the southern Sangres.  This is where high res models are
putting the stronger storm cores.   Storms will push off into the
southeast plains this afternoon where the southeast corner will see
the best chance of seeing up to an inch of precipitation.  Activity
diminishes across the mountains this evening with a decreasing trend
from west to east across the plains overnight.  Suspect there could
be some locations of enhanced runoff under convective showers below
the snow level (which may be driven down to around 9000 feet at
times this afternoon). This would be most likely across the San Luis
Valley and southern mountains where soils are likely saturated from
recent rain/snow. Do not see a widespread signature for flash flood
potential given higher areas will see snow and even lower elevations
could see small hail with the stronger cores.  But there will likely
be some localized enhanced runoff into creeks and streams where
persistent rainfall/snow melt occurs.

Have kept temperatures on the cooler side of guidance for the
mountains/adjacent plains today where precipitation is more likely
to affect temperatures.  Kept values closer to the median range out
east as there will be a greater potential for warm up before
afternoon showers and thunderstorms roll through.  Didn`t stray far
from model blends for overnight lows. -KT


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Sunday: A wet end to the weekend is expected for south central and
southeastern Colorado. A closed low will swing over the region,
bringing increased forcing and moisture. With the uptick in
forcing, showers are anticipated early in the day as rising
increases during the early morning hours. Then throughout the
day, particularly the afternoon, showers will blossom areawide
as the low pushes directly overhead. Snow showers are expected
for the higher mountain elevations, with rain expected
elsewhere. Also, given an increase in diurnal instability, some
showers across the area are anticipated to become convective in
nature, especially across the eastern plains, where any
instability will be greatest. And speaking of the eastern
plains, a strong storm or two can`t be ruled out mid to late
Sunday afternoon, with the most likely hazards being strong
winds to around 50 mph and small hail. With all of that said, as
the closed low exits the area late Sunday, and instability
wanes, showers across the region are expected to dissipate
throughout the overnight hours. Looking at temperatures, a
relatively cool day is expected given the unsettled weather over
the area. Most of south central and southeastern Colorado will
remain below seasonal values for mid May.

Monday - Friday: For the upcoming week, unsettled weather prevails.
A messy pattern with multiple interacting waves is expected to sit
over the region. This pattern will keep moisture in place, and with
the support from the waves, allow for precipitation chances to
remain elevated across south central and southeastern Colorado. At
this time, the greatest chance for heavier and more widespread
precipitation will be during the later half of the week, as a
complex pattern materializes as waves/lows try to interact with each
other as they push across the region. Model guidance is struggling
to resolve how much interaction, and therefore precipitation,
will take place though, which is evident in ensemble model
guidance, with some showing well over 1 inch of QPF, with others
showing less than 1 inch of QPF. Overall, confidence is high
(60-79%) in increased precipitation chances, but low (20-39%) in
eventual precipitation amounts. As for temperatures, a gradual
warmup to above seasonal values is anticipated through the week,
though a slight drop is expected during the midweek period as
the more unsettled pattern passes over. &&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Predominantly MVFR to VFR cigs expected at the TAF sites with rounds
of -SHRA/-TSRA possible through early evening.  A couple rounds
expected with one this morning, and another possible this afternoon
before diminishing quickly after 00z for all three terminals.  As
skies clear overnight there could be some ground fog developing
where the ground is saturated.  For now think that remnant mid/high
cloud deck with keep this development too patchy and low probability
for inclusion in any of the TAFs just yet.  Otherwise, winds will be
light and southerly with speeds generally under 15 kts. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT