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000
FXUS62 KRAH 241957
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
357 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep across central NC tonight. High pressure
will build in from the north Thursday through Friday night, before
shifting offshore over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...

Latest sfc and radar analysis this afternoon depict a continued east-
southeastward moving pre-frontal/rain cooled outflow induced light
stratiform rain band. This band of light rain will continue ese the
next several hours before exiting our area later this evening. The
associated overcast cloud deck will also disperse behind this
feature (KINT has already cleared out) clearing from north to south
through the overnight hours.  Flow will turn more wnwly as the
synoptic cold front (currently entering the western slopes of the
Appalachians) sweeps through overnight.  However, gustiness should
be subdued behind the front and the passage is expected to be dry.
Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40s/lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

...Seasonably Cool and Dry conditions...

A ~1030 mb surface high over SE Canada will build south down the Mid-
Atlantic and into the Carolinas through the period. Troughing over
the Eastern US will move offshore late Thursday, as an amplifying
ridge builds in from the Central US.

NELY low-level flow will result in seasonably cool temperatures and
very comfortable humidity levels. After fair weather cumulus
Thursday, an upslope and WAA regime on the eastern slopes of the
mtns, coupled with shortwave impulses cresting atop the ridge axis,
will yield periods of broken mid/high clouds Thursday night and
Friday especially, across the western piedmont. Thus, Friday will be
the coolest day of the two. Highs Thursday ranging from upper
60s/near 70 north to mid 70s south, with highs Friday averaging 2-3
degrees cooler. Conversely, Thursday night will be the coolest of
the two nights. Lows in the lower/mid 40s north to lower 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 PM Wednesday...

Central NC will be under the influence of a high-amplitude mid/upper
ridge as it slowly migrates across the eastern US from Saturday
through Monday. Thus dry weather and increasing temperatures will
prevail during this period. At the surface, 1030-1035 mb high
pressure will be centered east of the NJ coast on Saturday, which
will result in E/SE flow that will keep skies mostly covered by
low/mid level clouds. This will promote near-normal high
temperatures in the lower-to-mid-70s and slightly-above-normal lows
Saturday night in the lower-to-mid-50s. The surface high will weaken
and sink south to off the Carolinas/GA coast on Sunday and Monday,
shifting the surface flow to a S/SW direction. With the mid/upper
ridge strengthening and becoming centered over the mid-Atlantic,
skies will mostly clear and high temperatures will reach the upper-
70s to lower-80s on Sunday and mid-to-upper-80s on Monday and
Tuesday. Lows will be in the mid-50s to lower-60s. While these
temperatures won`t break any records, they are still 5-15 degrees
above normal.

Clouds and precipitation chances will be on the increase on Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough and associated cold
front approach from the west. There could be enough instability for
some storms. The shortwave doesn`t look too vigorous and model QPF
is on the light side, so only carry slight to low chance POPs at
this time (highest NW). While the deterministic ECMWF and GFS bring
the front through central NC on Tuesday evening/night and to our SE
by Wednesday, a minority of ensemble members are slower with its
passage which warrants continuing slight chance POPs on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 119 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will continue through the 24 hour TAF period. A band
of light and mostly elevated stratiform rain will continue to
progress ese through central NC through early this evening. A brief
period of sprinkles/light rain can be expected at KRDU/KRWI and
maybe KRWI over this period. Otherwise, an accompanying cloud deck
of 6 to 9 kft ceilings will push through, behind which clearing is
expected through the overnight period.  Swly sfc winds ahead of this
pre-frontal boundary will remain light and swly. Behind the feature,
flow will turn wnwly but remain light overnight. Winds will then
turn more nely Thursday, with perhaps a little gustiness possible
early Thursday at KRWI/KRDU/KFAY.  Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected from this evening through the end of the 24 hr TAF period.

Outlook: VFR conditions and light winds will continue through the
extended period as high pressure anchors offshore.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Luchetti/Badgett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti