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000
FXUS61 KRLX 190532
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
132 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Passing cold front brings showers and storms through late this
afternoon of evening. Cooler and drier this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1030 PM Thursday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 710 PM Thursday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 1216 PM Thursday...

Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft
temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early
Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front.
Winds will pick up towards early Friday with approach of this
system. With the storms, widespread severe is not anticipated,
but depending on timing of front and convective development, an
isolated strong storm cannot be completely ruled out across the
south and east, but overall, the front should be through most
locations by peak heating, thus limiting overall instability and
severe potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms continuing along the mountains Friday
night before largely moving out before midnight. Post-FROPA NW
winds will be picking up going into Saturday morning, especially
along the mountains, but winds will be below advisory criteria.

Saturday looks to be cool and dry with departing clouds behind
the cold front. The lowlands will see temperatures in the low to
mid 60s, while the mountains will stay in the 40s and 50s. Lows
Saturday night will be cold with widespread 30s and 40s leading
to frost concerns for the active growing areas going into
Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

Dry and cooler weather will still be in play to end the weekend,
with the coolest day being Sunday where the lowlands will see
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s; 40s and 50s in the
mountains. There could be some showers across the southwestern
VA and southern WV mountains Sunday due to some moisture passing
to our south from The GoM.

There remains the possibility for a couple mornings of frost
across the region next week. Cold lows in the 30s will allow
for a more widespread development Monday morning; which could
prompt some frost/freeze headlines across counties with active
growing seasons.

Guidance is still split on what will happen with a front next
week, but some midweek rain or thunderstorms could be possible.
Temperatures look to be near normal to a few degrees below
normal next week, with Tuesday being the warmest day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions are expected overnight ahead of an
approaching cold front. Clouds will increase in coverage,
lowering to 5-6kft by 12Z when the front arrives to the Mid OH
valley. Conditions will remain VFR despite of light rain showers
across the western terminals during the morning hours. However,
a thunderstorm or two may pass by, producing brief periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions and strong gusty winds along their path.

The cold front crosses during the afternoon producing a wind shift from
southwest to northeast at PKB, HTS and CRW around 18Z, and CKB, EKN and
BKW by 20Z.

Ceilings will lower to MVFR across the mountains along and behind FROPA,
perhaps persisting through midnight. Drier conditions and even clearing
may spread from west to east behind the FROPA with widespread VFR conditions
prevailing across the western terminals this afternoon and evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions
may vary from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 04/19/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL/JZ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ