Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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625 FXUS64 KSHV 280541 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1241 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Compared to 24 hours ago, tonight has trended quiet across the region while an active evening continues across north Texas, and southern and central Oklahoma. Temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70`s areawide as some thin high clouds drift in from the west, associated with the tall towers shearing off from thunderstorms over Texas and Oklahoma. What is left of the linear storm mode to the west will start to enter the NW tier of the CWA by sunrise, buying any changes to forward speed overnight. That being said, the extent of the early AM severe potential remains to be seen and will be closely monitored overnight. At this time, only changes needed in the update was to remove PoPs from much of the overnight and adjust hourlies to meet latest trends. RK && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Very active weather should return to the region tonight, as a very robust line of thunderstorms begins to work into our western zones towards Sunday morning. This line will pose both a heavy rain threat, and a severe weather threat for our entire area through Monday evening. Given rainfall amounts the other day, and QPF amounts expected into the new workweek, a flood watch will go into effect Sunday morning, and remain in effect through the main heavy rain window, with 2-4 inches of rain, and locally heavier amounts possible. Regarding the severe weather threat tomorrow, this is where it gets...somewhat complicated. I hesitate to say the severe weather threat is secondary compared to the flooding threat, because that is certainly not the case, but the severe weather threat is very conditional. On the flip side of that, the environment overhead is very supportive of a severe weather threat, and I could very much see portions of our region being upgraded into an Enhanced Risk come tomorrow morning. It all boils down to forcing along the boundary, and the scope of convection across the region through tomorrow. Severe storms tomorrow would be capable of all modes of severe weather, including embedded tornadoes along the main line. This line of storms should exit the region by Monday evening, with the flood watch expiring shortly behind it. However, look for a disturbed pattern to continue into the long-term. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Disturbed pattern should remain across the region, as SW flow quickly returns behind this trough. Rain should remain in the forecast, before better rain chances return towards the weekend with a small shortwave approaching the region. Additional moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible with this system, but it appears very progressive in nature. Regardless, look for additional adjustments and updates to the forecast over the coming week. /44/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 For the 28/06Z TAFs, gusty conditions look to continue through the night at most area terminals, particularly across east Texas, with SSE winds maintaining speeds of 10 to 20 kts with gusts over 30 kts still possible. CIGs will descend to MVFR heights while becoming increasingly overcast towards dawn ahead of incoming storms, which look to impact northern and western ArkLaTex airspace after daybreak, potentially impacting TXK TYR and GGG through the morning. More potent impacts will develop in the latter half of the TAF package, reflected with prevailing VCTS and TSRA conditions. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 86 67 83 67 / 40 100 60 10 MLU 86 67 77 65 / 20 60 90 30 DEQ 78 61 82 59 / 90 80 20 10 TXK 83 65 81 64 / 70 90 30 10 ELD 84 63 78 62 / 40 90 80 20 TYR 81 66 83 66 / 80 80 20 10 GGG 82 66 83 66 / 70 90 30 10 LFK 84 67 85 67 / 50 90 50 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday evening for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...26