607
FXUS64 KSHV 111947
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
247 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Quiet weather will gradually come to an end across the Four State
Region as the weekend ends. This is due to surface ridging that
will weaken and shift eastward, re-introducing southerly winds and
a chance of precipitation into Deep East Texas. High amounts of
antecedent soil moisture will create conducive conditions for
flash flooding by tomorrow, therefore a Flood Watch has been
issued starting tomorrow morning. Otherwise, temperature maximums
and minimums will be moderated by cloud cover into the upper
70s/mid-to-upper 60s. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Active and wet weather will continue through most of next week
across the Four State Region. This is due to a quasi-zonal
synoptic pattern augmented by a series of slower troughs and
faster embedded shortwaves across northern Mexico and the Southern
Plains. The first of these disturbances will keep precipitation
going through Monday (flash flooding possible in Deep East Texas),
then a break in activity precedes the next round of activity late
Wednesday into early Friday.

Severe weather remains a possibility as troughing will be strong
enough on Monday and later next week to introduce some divergent
flow aloft that aids updrafts in any convection that develops.
That said, day 1-7 QPF values continue to trend wetter with
widespread 3-6 inch totals expected and isolated higher amounts
not out of the question (especially with rainfall expected into
next weekend). Temperature maximums/minimums will be moderated by
this activity as a result, remaining in the low-to-mid 80s/upper
60s. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

For the 11/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will persist through much of
the forecast period, with scattered mid to high level clouds
through this afternoon. Sky coverage will increase from the west
through the forecast period ahead of the next weather system,
which looks to start impacting east Texas terminals with light
rain as daybreak approaches, spreading across the ArkLaTex and
increasing in intensity into the day tomorrow. Winds from the
east will not much exceed 5 to 10 kts this afternoon, becoming
light and variable overnight and assuming a southeasterly
direction tomorrow.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  76  67  85 /  20  70  80  50
MLU  64  77  64  84 /  10  50  90  70
DEQ  61  77  61  81 /  20  50  80  60
TXK  64  77  64  84 /  10  60  80  50
ELD  62  78  62  81 /  10  50  90  60
TYR  66  73  68  86 /  20  90  60  30
GGG  65  74  67  85 /  20  80  70  40
LFK  66  77  69  86 /  40  90  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
     TXZ136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...26