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000
FXUS62 KTAE 170514
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
114 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A thick veil of high clouds should temper expectations on fog a
bit over portions of Southeast AL and the Western FL Panhandle
and guidance has backed off as well. Patchy fog is still possible
and the forecast reflects this, now including portions of the
FL Big Bend where dew points are higher than expected. Otherwise,
no significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Another quiet night is in store for us with surface high pressure in
close proximity to our east and strong subtropical ridge established
across the Gulf. These features will make for light/calm winds
leading into tomorrow morning amidst a shallow, moistening boundary
layer. As such, another round of fog development is likely. Guidance
currently has the strongest signal over the Western FL Panhandle &
Southern AL, so that is where fog (some of which may be locally
dense) is explicitly forecast from about after midnight to around
sunrise. Low temperatures range from the upper 50s to low 60s. These
readings are several degrees above normal for mid-April.

For Wednesday, the subtropical ridge axis extends roughly from the
Bay of Campeche to the Suwannee Valley with modeled 500-mb heights
of 588-589 dm. These values approach daily record territory, per
KTLH sounding climatology. Therefore, expect an unseasonably warm
day characterized by widespread mid 80s for inland high temperatures
under a mix of sun & clouds. The coastal strip should experience
relatively cooler temperatures from the afternoon seabreeze.
Meanwhile, confluent southeasterly flow ahead of an increasingly
diffuse front sagging into the MS Valley may squeeze out isolated
low-topped showers off/towards the Emerald Coast during the morning
hrs.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper ridge axis will shift east towards the east coast as an
upper low moves northeast towards southern Canada by Thursday.
Surface ridging will continue across the southeast US emanating
from high pressure in the western Atlantic. Mid level flow
transitions to a more zonal flow late week while a surface high
pressure center sets up in the eastern Gulf allowing winds to veer
from the southeast to southwest. The area will be hard pressed to
see any rainfall through the first part of the weekend, though
a couple of weak showers cannot be ruled out as shortwave energy
glances by to the north. With the zonal flow aloft, mid/high
clouds from the upstream system and shortwaves traversing the flow
appear plentiful Wednesday and Thursday. Despite this, daily high
temperatures will reach well into the 80s, with a few 90s in the
mix Friday and Saturday. The next frontal system, and the one that
seems to be gaining consistency and confidence in the models,
appears to make a run at the area Sunday into Monday. Some
rainfall will accompany the front along with a cooling trend back
into the upper 70s to low 80s behind the front heading into the
next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR through the period. Widespread mid/high clouds can be seen on
satellite moving through the area, which should help squash most
fog development. Though, some patchy fog may still develop;
confidence is low of development to impact any TAF sites. Thus,
have kept the TAFs VFR with light winds becoming more southerly by
mid morning with speeds AOB 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Surface high pressure maintains favorable boating conditions into
the weekend with a seabreeze each afternoon prompting an onshore
wind just offshore. By Sunday, a cold front sagging towards the
waters brings back rain chances and the potential for thunderstorms.
Winds turn more northerly behind the front on Monday. Overall,
forecast winds and seas aim to stay below cautionary levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Fire concerns are fairly low the next 72 hrs as a steady south to
southwest wind offsets continued rain-free weather. Patchy fog is
likely over the Western FL Panhandle and Southern AL early Wednesday
morning, of which some may be locally dense. By tomorrow afternoon,
high dispersions are forecast over the northern-tier GA counties in
response to winds becoming slightly stronger ahead of a sagging
front from the MS Valley. A seabreeze is expected to develop each
day as well with a notable warming trend forecast heading into the
weekend. In fact, most inland locations will flirt with the 90-
degree mark for the first time this year on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The period of dry conditions will continue for the next several
days with the next chance for rainfall accompanying a low pressure
system possibly late this weekend. Generally, less than a quarter
inch of rainfall is anticipated with this system at this time.

The areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee,
Aucilla, and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood, the Suwanee
has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford.
Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwanee with
additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   62  87  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   64  80  66  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        63  85  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        63  87  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      63  87  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    61  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  76  66  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     FLZ108-112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Scholl