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000
FXUS63 KTOP 241950
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
250 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms becoming likely late tonight into Thursday with
  a small risk for severe storms.

- Severe thunderstorm potential returns Thursday night, Friday
  afternoon, then Saturday afternoon and night with more
  impactful storms likely

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Weak mid-level isentropic lift has resulted in considerable high-
level cloud today but little precip making for a pleasant spring day
in dry air and light winds. Conditions get more concerning through
the night and into at least mid-weekend. The overall forecast has
not changed much from previous forecasts.

Models are in fairly good agreement with the elevated mixed layer
over moistening lower levels being weaker than expected.
Precipitation is likely to increase from more isolated regime to
waves of showers and storms late tonight into Thursday morning with
850 mb moisture convergence focusing not far to the west late
tonight. CAPE based around 800 mb increases to near 1000 J/kg with
moderate effective shear supporting at least a small large hail
threat with the stronger updrafts that can form. This activity would
likely exit around midday Thursday leaving behind a wet and cool
boundary layer covered in stratus. Vigorous thunderstorms are still
expected to form in the late afternoon in western Kansas and move
northeast, but should diminish to a hail threat as they approach in
the late evening and overnight hours. There will be some potential
for precip to form locally but this could be more showery in nature
with indications of the EML increasing.

The dryline`s eastward progression through the area Friday continues
to be a focus. Convergence along it remains meager and stratus may
remain rather stubborn ahead of it limiting instability, though
there are better indications of upper support via weak height falls.
Upper level winds are not very strong keeping shear a bit more
limited but the scenario for at least isolated storm development in
eastern Kansas remains in play with surface-based supercell threats.
Surface winds still should at least approach Advisory levels for
sustained and gust speeds but guidance means have backed off a bit
on the extreme mixing potential.

Deep-layer shear increases ahead of the second upper wave late
Saturday. Stratus may again be present in eastern areas into the
afternoon but the setup still supports severe thunderstorm and
training storm potential in the late afternoon and night. The wave
lingers into Sunday but remaining instability should be much
reduced.

Broad upper troughing with weak surface high pressure gets replaced
with near-zonal flow with perhaps a weak wave around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions will persist through much of this forecast though
deteriorating conditions are expected near its end. Low-level
moisture will surge north with potential for elevated showers
and thunderstorms increasing after 11Z. Confidence in IFR
ceilings as well as timing and impacts of convection is too low
for inclusion at this range.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage