Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241728
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

989mb surface low centered over southeast CO is expected to
continue deepening through the afternoon, resulting in
strengthening of low level wind fields. Considerable high and mid
cloud cover may inhibit mixing of stronger winds to the surface
top some degree, however given the anticipated strength of low,
would expect wind gusts in the 40-45 mph range to become common
across northeast OK over the next few hours. For right now the
wind advisory configuration looks good, but may need to consider
eastward expansion before 00z. Band of showers and a few elevated
thunderstorms continue in warm advection regime across western and
central OK, and this activity will gradually expand into eastern
OK this afternoon as well. Made some adjustments to POP/WX grids
to reflect current trends, but the overall forecast continue to
trend well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A dryline will setup across far western OK this afternoon.
Surface-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the
dryline and progress eastward into central OK late in the
afternoon. Storms are expected to eventually enter the western
fringes of the CWA late this afternoon or early this evening.
Latest CAMs suggest the storms quickly become elevated in nature,
with an EML developing by 00z or so. Instability still seems
somewhat meager (CAPE values 500-1000 J/kg) over the area during
the late afternoon/early evening hours. Despite this, CAPE values
should be sufficient, with more than enough 0-6 km bulk shear and
steep mid-level lapse rates to support strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing marginally severe hail and
damaging wind gusts, at least initially (early-mid evening). A
weakening trend should occur as storms enter the CWA.

Better and more widespread rain and scattered thunderstorm
chances will occur late this evening/overnight tonight and into
Monday as strong upper-level divergence occurs overhead on the
left-exit region of an approaching upper-level jet. This late
evening activity should stay sub-severe, though embedded strong
storms/line segments are possible. Increased deep-layered
moisture (PWATs in excess of 1”) and strong lifting will aid in
moderate to heavy rainfall through the overnight hours and into
Monday. Activity will initially develop across central/south-
central OK and shift east/northeastward through the night. The
heaviest precipitation should exit east of the area Monday
afternoon. However, shower and storm chances may continue and
develop along a southeastward-advancing cold front Monday
afternoon/evening before drying out behind the front. The highest
rainfall amounts are still expected along a southwest-to-
northeast axis, focused across southeast and east-central OK into
northwest and west-central AR. This is where 1 to 3 inches of rain
look probable, with isolated higher amounts possible.
Minor/nuisance flooding, even isolated flash flooding, will be a
possibility, especially in low-lying and flood-prone areas that
receive heavy/intense rainfall rates.

Winds: Strong and gusty southerly winds will be ongoing this
evening/tonight from this afternoon. Model guidance has gusty
winds (40-50 mph gusts) spreading into far eastern OK and
northwest/west-central AR around or by sunset this evening. A
Wind Advisory has been issued for much of far eastern OK and
northwest AR beginning at 7 PM this evening through 6 AM Monday
morning. Additionally, the Wind Advisory that is already in place
for northeast OK from the previous forecast package, was also
extended until 6 AM Monday morning. Timing and locations of the
advisory may need to be adjusted in later forecast packages.

As mentioned above, a cold front is forecast to push through the
CWA west-to-east Monday evening. Behind the front, temperatures
are anticipated to fall into the 30s, perhaps even upper 20s near
the KS/OK border by sunrise Tuesday. Unseasonably cool temperature
will persist through the day Tuesday, with highs generally in the
low- mid 50s. Even cold temperatures will develop Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning as surface high pressure begins to settle
into the region. Freeze headlines will be needed both nights.

A warming trend will occur beginning on Wednesday and continue
through the start of next weekend. A fast moving shortwave trough,
with very limited moisture, moves over the Plains during the
daytime on Wednesday. Precipitation looks unlikely at this time.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Strong and gusty south to southeast winds will persist through
much of the forecast period, with LLWS developing overnight
tonight as a strong low level jet develops over the region.
Ceilings will lower through today, however should remain VFR as
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm spread into eastern
OK early this afternoon. Thunderstorms developing on the dry line
in western OK will move toward eastern OK after 00z, but
probability of impacting any TAF locations remains slim and thus
will be omitted from this forecast. More robust convection is
expected to expand across mainly southeast OK and western AR after
about 05z, with deteriorating conditions. Return to VFR
conditions should occur over much of eastern OK Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  55  69  31 /  80  80  20   0
FSM   67  56  65  37 /  10 100  80  10
MLC   65  55  70  34 /  40  90  40   0
BVO   62  51  68  28 /  80  80  10   0
FYV   64  51  65  30 /  20  90  80  10
BYV   62  51  61  33 /  10  90  90  10
MKO   64  54  67  32 /  50  80  40   0
MIO   62  53  66  30 /  40  80  40  10
F10   64  54  68  33 /  60  80  20   0
HHW   65  53  67  36 /  30 100  60   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Monday for
     OKZ057-058-062-063-067>076.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT Monday for OKZ054>056-059>061-
     064>066.

AR...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM CDT Monday for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14


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