Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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157 FXUS64 KTSA 301733 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Moisture return is well underway across the region ahead of a dryline that stretches from NW OK down into the TX Panhandle, with dewpoints well into the 60s. A shortwave trough is beginning to shift east into the central Plains. Surface low pressure over NW KS will shift northeast with time and drag a front south and east this afternoon into the evening across southern KS. Both the front and the dryline will be a focus for strong to severe storm activity this afternoon and evening. There are differences in the CAM data regarding timing and storm coverage on the dryline, but most data has storms on the front over southern KS. Given the location of the forcing boundaries, areas to the north and west of Tulsa will have the best chance for storms. Some locally heavy rainfall could occur near the KS border where the front becomes more west-east oriented and would support training storms. Outflow from the storms on the front could force more storms down into NE OK tonight. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A warm and more humid day is on tap today as breezy southerly winds return, with afternoon high temperatures warming well into the 80s. There will be a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the far northwest part of the forecast area towards evening as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Tonight will mark the start of an extended period of unsettled weather. The aforementioned frontal boundary will sag south to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border and will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as storms train over the same areas, but with uncertainty on just which side of the border the heaviest rainfall will set up, will not issue a flood watch at this time. The frontal boundary will lift back north of the area Wednesday morning with convection waning at that time. Convection will likely fire to the west Wednesday afternoon along a dry line, with that convection potentially affecting our area overnight Wednesday night. At this point, it appears the southern part of the forecast area may see the greatest chance for rainfall at that time. Convective coverage will likely be greatest Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front moves into and through the area. Nevertheless, the categorical pops shown by the NBM seem excessive for a day 3 convective event, especially considering potential effects from prior rounds of convection. Thus, have backed off some from those pops Thursday and Thursday evening. The cold front looks to stall near the Red River early Friday and will then meander around in our vicinity through the weekend, which will continue the chances of showers and storms. A stronger storm system may affect the area early next week, continuing shower and storm chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for the bulk of the period at all TAFs. The best chance of storms will be at the NE OK sites tonight, closer to the focusing boundaries. There is some chance that an outflow boundary could push far enough south to bring storms to KMLC by early Wednesday. If storms impact an airport, a brief period of MVFR is possible. Storm activity should remain west of the NW AR TAF sites thru the period. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 84 67 78 / 50 40 40 70 FSM 63 87 67 79 / 20 20 30 80 MLC 65 84 67 78 / 20 30 50 90 BVO 60 83 65 78 / 70 40 50 90 FYV 61 83 64 78 / 20 20 30 70 BYV 61 84 66 77 / 20 20 20 70 MKO 63 84 66 76 / 40 30 40 80 MIO 61 83 66 77 / 60 30 40 80 F10 64 83 66 77 / 30 30 50 90 HHW 64 83 65 75 / 10 30 50 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...30