412
FXUS64 KTSA 100230
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
930 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 930 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

At mid evening a few showers/isolated storms remained across far
Southeast Oklahoma along/near an axis of 700-mb frontogenetic
forcing. This activity was moving within the mean flow along this
boundary...with the northern extent of the marginal elevated
instability also along/near the frontogenetic forcing axis. A few
showers/isolated storm will remain forecast near the Red River
for the next couple of hours before the forcing axis and elevated
instability get a push southeast from a mid/upper level trof axis
dropping southeast through the Plains. Severe weather is not
expected with the remaining activity this evening.

Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...mostly clear skies were common as surface high pressure
expanded southward into the Southern Plains underneath the
mid/upper level trof axis. The mostly clear condition should
continue to spread over the CWA overnight...with some possible
high clouds early morning Friday behind the exiting trof axis. In
response...temps tonight remain forecast to fall into the 50s for
most locations over the CWA. The normal cool locations could
potentially reach into the upper 40s briefly before sunrise.

For the evening update...have adjusted PoPs/wx grids for tonight
based on the mentioned above...and added minor tweaks to hourly
overnight temp/dewpoint/sky grids to account for latest trends and
obs. The rest of the forecast seems to be in good shape at this
time.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Quiet weather is anticipated Friday and Saturday as high pressure prevails
at the surface and aloft. The chances of showers/storms return Sunday night
into Monday night as an upper level low moves out of the Rockies and across the
Plains. Additional showers and storms are possible Wednesday night into
Thursday as another upper level system impacts the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. Mid and high cloud
will clear out by this evening. Some few to sct mid cloud could
reappear tomorrow afternoon, but no aviation impact is expected.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  76  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   57  78  54  82 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   57  78  54  82 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   49  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   51  74  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  71  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  74  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   50  72  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
F10   54  75  54  80 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   59  78  54  79 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30