134
FXAK67 PAJK 092211
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
211 PM AKDT Thu May 9 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Very gray, wet, and somewhat
windy day today as mother nature does its best impression of
fall. An atmospheric river is currently aimed right at the
northern panhandle with wide spread windy conditions and generally
wet weather. Rainfall amounts over the last 12 hours have ranged
as high as 1.75 inches near Yakutat and upper Glacier Bay to lower
amounts as you go farther south and east (no amounts over 1 inch
south of Sitka though). Snow levels have also been low with a few
inches of snow reported at White Pass (elevation around 3000 ft)
this morning. Winds generally have been gusting to around 35 to 40
mph in the central and northern panhandle at low elevations today
with wide spread small craft winds to 30 kt in the inner channels
north of Sumner Strait.

The worst conditions are expected this afternoon and evening
before things get better. Expect around 1 to 2 inches total of
rainfall for the northern half of the area with some areas
reaching 3 inches. The atmospheric river will then get pushed
east overnight taking the rain and winds with it. The timing of
the move east has the northern panhandle out of the heavier rain
and wind by 10 pm this evening and it should be east of even Hyder
by 5 am tomorrow morning. Behind it, W to SW flow takes over with
showers continuing across the north into Friday morning as a weak
trough moves through. As for snow levels after briefly rising
this afternoon they will again drop low enough for some snow
possible at White Pass (accumulations should stay at an inch or
two or less) and on the lower mountain tops of the north again
tonight.

Friday afternoon and night is looking much better as a ridge
builds over the eastern gulf lowering winds and shutting off the
showers. Gardeners will have to watch low temperatures for late
Friday night in the north as breaks in the clouds and low winds
may allow temperatures to get cold enough (mid to low 30s) for
some frost formation.


.LONG TERM...The long term starts with the return of the wet weather
for SE AK. Rain chances will increase from west to east as our
next system moves across the gulf during the day on Saturday and
into Saturday evening. With this, weather across the area will
continue to feel more like late summer and early fall rather than
late spring with the continued wet weather. As of right now, the
weather looks to remain wet and unsettled but rainfall amounts
each day should become less compared to the rain amounts being
seen today. With the continued clouds and rain, temperatures
continue to remain cool and should continue on a trend similar to
where they have been. As we head farther into the long term, CPC
guidance continues to show in the 6 to 10 day a more cool and wet
pattern for SE AK. This is backed up by the 8 to 14 day guidance
that suggests a continued cool and dry pattern with the exception
of the southern panhandle. Probabilities of precipitation remain
near equal for locations south of Frederick sound.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally MVFR prevailing across SE Alaska today due
to reduced VSBY/CIGS in rain/fog with a few spots of IFR across
the northern Panhandle where the rain has been heavier today. One
of the larger impacts today has been the strong winds with LLWS
being detected most areas, but the strongest LLWS has been noted
between Sitka, Gustavus and Juneau. These impacts to aviation
will continue into tonight before gradually diminishing through
Friday morning as the front moves by and southwesterly low level
flow ensues going through tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...Active day in the marine areas of the panhandle and gulf
today. Wide spread small craft winds to 30 kt across the gulf
waters and inner channels north of Sumner Strait. Isolated areas
of gale are also being observed in areas like Young Bay and Cross
Sound. Seas in the gulf are also up with 13 ft seas observed at
the Cape Edgecombe buoy. These higher winds and seas will persist
through the evening hours before starting to diminish everywhere
except in northern Lynn Canal tonight. Northern Lynn will likely
keep southerly 25 kt through early Friday morning before
diminishing there as well. Into Friday night, the marine forecast
looks much improved with low winds for the inner channels and
eastern gulf. The central gulf does have some increasing winds to
30 kt from the next system late Friday night, but it will take
until Sat night to make it anywhere near the inner channels and
even then it will be weakening as it comes.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 4 PM AKDT this afternoon through Friday morning
     for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ323-325.
     Strong Wind until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ327.
     Strong Wind from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening
     for AKZ327.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-642-643-662-663.
 Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031>036-641-644-651-652-661-
 664-671-672.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...EAL
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...JG

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