Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 201103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
603 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018


See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.



VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Northerly sfc
winds will be weak to moderate today, becoming weak out of the
east by late afternoon then east-southeast overnight.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

A long wave trough moving east across the southern plains and TX
this morning will help push reinforcing sfc high pressure with a
cooler airmass across S TX later this morning. This will also lead
to strengthening offshore winds across the waters. Advisory
conditions are still anticipated and will keep the SCA in place.
Winds across the waters are expected to decrease below advisory
levels by noon. Otherwise, today will be pleasant with sunny skies
and highs in the mid 70s to around 80 and low humidity. Mostly clear
skies are expected tonight and Wed with a slight warm up by Wed due
to a return to onshore flow. A few clouds will move across S TX by
Wed afternoon as low level moisture begins to increase.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday)...

The long-term starts with an upper ridge over the area so expect dry
conditions. The ridge moves east late Friday, with WSW flow Saturday
and an approaching trough Sunday and Monday (approaching but
stalling). Except for Saturday where some good moisture advection
takes place, rain chances appear limited through the weekend except
for perhaps some showers/storms on Saturday mainly Northern Coastal
Bend and Victoria area. It appears that by Sunday the better
moisture stays north and west of the CWFA so do not expect much in
rainfall on Sunday (did put a 20 POP over the extreme western areas
in case some convection which may develop in Old Mexico moves into
the area before dissipating.

After that the models begin to diverge on the available moisture,
with the main part of the upper trough remaining west of the area
and keeping the best energy away from South Texas. The GFS is trying
to bring a boundary down on Monday night/early Tuesday morning and
really have trouble buying this solution given the fact that the
trough remains to the west. Now, if enough convection develops north
of the area Monday night and outflow boundary could move into the
area, help generate convection and shift winds to the north on
Tuesday.  Do not buy that at this time and even so GFS is not
equipped for that type of meso scale solution that far out (GFS has
issues with overall pattern that far out at times). However, we
could have enough moisture around with the upper trough providing
enough Pacific moisture (with surface moisture there too) and
perhaps a weak impulse of energy to get something going on Monday.

Otherwise, still looks like a warming trend with increasing winds
toward the weekend into early next week. Could have some borderline
SCA conditions over the bays in the afternoon and gulf waters in the
evening starting this weekend. For temperatures, generally went with
a blend of Superblend and the National Model Blend, with some
adjustments for the daytime highs near the coast as in some cases
the blends do not compensate for these temperatures near the coast
adequately. Overall, the minimum temperatures using this method was


Corpus Christi    77  54  78  63  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          74  48  77  56  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
Laredo            81  56  84  62  84  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             79  51  81  60  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          75  58  75  64  78  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           79  51  82  58  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        80  52  81  60  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       74  61  76  66  78  /   0   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.



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