Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 241134
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the day today with high clouds
streaming into the region. Winds at SAT/AUS will be light and
variable until mid-morning and then become southeasterly at 5 to 10
kts. Winds at DRT will be southeasterly around 10 kts until mid-
morning and then increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Clear skies and light winds are persisting tonight with temperatures
in the middle 50s to middle 60s. Southerly flow returns to the entire
region today and highs will be about 3-5 degrees warmer than
yesterday, or in the middle 80s to lower 90s. For late this
afternoon and tonight, an upper level low currently in the Northern
Plains will continue to drop south. As it does so lift will be slowly
increasing, but the bulk of the shower and possible storms today
will remain to the west and north of the CWA. A storm could clip the
the northwestern CWA this evening and will just mention a 20 PoP for
this possibility.

On Wednesday, the upper trough will be near Kansas and a cold front
will begin to approach the region. At the same time, a weak
disturbance will enter the western CWA from the west. High-res models
pick up on this well and develop a small complex of showers and
storms to the northwest of the CWA in the morning hours and track it
across the western areas during the day. The best chances for rain
will be west of Highway 281 and will forecast a 50-60 PoP there with
20-40 percent east of Highway 281. Rainfall amounts during the
daytime hours will average less than a half of an inch for areas that
see the best rainfall. Instability amounts will be too low to
support a chance of strong to severe storms.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
By Wednesday night, the cold front will be entering the CWA and there
will be a continued chance of rain ahead and behind the front.
Additional rainfall amounts will once again remain less than a half
an inch. Winds will remain out of the north through Thursday morning,
but east/southeast flow returns by the afternoon hours. This is in
response to the next approaching trough that will quickly send
another front into the region Friday morning. The GFS and Canadian
continue to show fairly widespread rainfall with the front, while the
ECMWF remains mostly dry. Will introduce a 20-30 PoP for areas west
of Highway 281 for now, but these could go up or down over the next
48 hours. Southerly flow returns behind this front on Sunday with a
low chance of rain on Monday in a warm air advection regime.
Temperatures in the extended will be in the 70s and lower 80s with
the two fronts expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  61  82  55  78 /   0   0  30  40  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  58  81  54  77 /   0   0  30  40  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  58  82  55  78 /   0   0  40  40  10
Burnet Muni Airport            85  60  78  50  77 /   0  -   40  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           92  66  79  57  81 /   0  -   60  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  59  81  52  76 /   0  -   30  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             88  60  82  56  79 /   0   0  40  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  58  81  55  78 /   0   0  30  40  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  60  82  56  76 /   0   0  20  40  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  61  82  57  78 /   0   0  40  40  10
Stinson Muni Airport           87  61  82  58  77 /   0   0  30  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire



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