Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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545
FXUS63 KIND 202021
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
420 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Quiet weather can be expected into the first half of the weekend,
then a couple of upper level systems will bring rain chances Sunday
into next week. Temperatures will average a little below normal
through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High pressure will keep central Indiana dry through tonight. There
will be a gradual increase in high clouds.

The center of the high will remain to the north of the area, and
with the addition of some high clouds, conditions will not favor
great radiational cooling. In addition, the lower atmosphere will
remain very dry.

Am expecting temperatures to remain above freezing tonight. With the
above factors in play, do not expect a widespread frost either. Will
mention patchy frost and issue a Special Weather Statement for it.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Saturday through Monday/
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Some high and mid cloud will be across the area Saturday as an upper
level system moves closer to the area. However, still expect some
sunshine. The model blend has been a little cool lately, so will
raise it some for highs Saturday.

Mid and high clouds will remain across the area Saturday night, but
dry conditions are still expected. An upper low moving into the
lower Mississippi Valley may bring a few showers to far southern
areas Sunday and Sunday night.

Models differ on how far north the upper low gets on Monday. The NAM
is an outlier on how far it brings the low north. Will trend away
from its solution and closer to the consensus of the other models.
Will thus cut back to the south the initialization`s PoPs Monday
afternoon.

With the exception of Saturday as mentioned above, the
initialization`s temperatures look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

After the pleasant weekend to come...much of the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes will be thrust back into a cool and unsettled pattern
that will take up a fair amount of next week as the pesky and
unwanted upper trough that has been a mainstay across the eastern
U S makes a reappearance. While temperatures will be below
normal...it will not be anywhere near as cold as some of the
unseasonably chilly weather from late March and earlier this
month. Average late April highs are in the mid and upper 60s now.

Three separate upper level waves are poised to impact the region
next week...each seemingly more amplified than the last. The first
is the cutoff low set to track into the Tennessee Valley by
Monday before getting drawn north into the Ohio Valley as it opens
up. This feature will likely generate a few showers across the
forecast area Monday night and Tuesday. The second upper feature
will rotate down into the region and bring widespread showers on
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Then after a brief period of ridging aloft Thursday...the third
and final wave will carve out an increasingly amplified trough
over the region for late week. This will bring yet another round
of more widespread rainfall for Friday and could end up being the
coolest day of the week with highs only in the upper 40s and lower
50s. Most other days next week will see highs range from the 50s
into the lower 60s.

The as promised and more significant warmup still resides on the
horizon about 10 days away. Broad ridging will set up over the
central U S by next weekend with model trends supporting rising
heights into the eastern part of the country for the first week of
May as the ridge expands.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 202100Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 420 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

High pressure and deep subsidence will maintain dry conditions
with mainly clear skies into Saturday. Mid and high level clouds
will increase on Saturday as moisture aloft spills over the upper
ridge. Winds will be light easterly throughout much of the
period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan/JAS



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