Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 262337
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
637 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.AVIATION...
Stiff northerly winds this evening will be slow to diminish with
a 1023 MB surface ridge pushing in overnight. Pressure gradient
will gradually ease later tonight but a light northerly component
likely to hang on close to daybreak Friday. High-based convective
activity in the eastern Panhandle will redevelop southward behind
the cold front and most likely stay east of KCDS - but retained a
vicinity thunderstorm remark at KCDS between 02Z and 04Z. Dry,
VFR and lighter winds likely much of Friday until surface ridge
gives way to renewed surface pressure falls and troughing over
eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandle late Friday afternoon.
RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

UPDATE...

As of 4:30 pm, the cold front is currently stretched from
Childress to Plains. North winds behind the front are 25 to 35
mph with 32 mph sustained at Morton, Plains and Dimmitt.
Increased the wind forecast to reflect this and issued a Wind
Advisory for much of the western South Plains until 7 pm this
evening. Expect winds to fall below advisory criteria shortly
after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Another dynamic upper level short wave trough is moving across
western Kansas this afternoon, hot on the heels of Tuesday`s
system. Strong surface pressure rises on the central High Plains
is resulting in a period of advisory level wind speeds behind
another stout cold front. Bulk of evidence suggests these pressure
rises will decrease in intensity as they move to the south. We
should see some advisory level winds across the northwestern part
of the forecast area as we finish out the afternoon, but currently
think that this period will be rather brief. The next issue is
potential for the western end of a batch of showers/thunder that
several models project developing just ahead of the upper trough
clipping the northeastern corner of the forecast area. The last
several runs of the HRRR have favored this solution with support
from the WRF-NAM. Will insert a small area of 20-30 percent PoPs.
Finally, there is the potential for a few spots to touch the
freezing mark Friday morning. That happened at several West Texas
mesonet and NWS coop observation sites this morning. Conditions
should be similar in the morning. However, any widespread freeze,
or a long-duration freeze is unlikely.

The other point of concern this afternoon is related to
thunderstorm chances next week. Upper level troughing over the
western CONUS will see the current northwest flow over the Plains
states replaced by southwesterly flow. This will promote a
southerly component to the low level flow and low level moisture
return being acted upon by a dryline that will likely shift
eastward each day from eastern New Mexico Saturday afternoon to
the Rolling Plains or even as far east as Northwest Texas by
Tuesday or Wednesday afternoon. The last few forecast cycles have
shown this evolution, and no significant changes have been made
this afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023-027>029-
033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

99/99/05



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