Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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791
FXUS62 KMLB 220224
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1024 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Tonight-Sunday...Stalled front just north of Lake Okeechobee will
keep moisture flowing onshore through the overnight. Current radar
and latest models not favoring widespread coverage, so have
lowered PoPs in northern zones to near 30% and keeping isolated
thunder for coastal and marine areas south of the Cape. Breezy
easterly winds persist tonight and into Sunday, as PoPs tomorrow
increase to 70%. Overnight lows in the upper 60s, highs Sunday in
the mid to upper 70s with widespread cloudiness.

Sunday night-Monday night...(prev discussion) Increasing fetch of
easterlies will provide an onshore flow as high pressure
transitions seaward off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Seaboard and New
England coast. Deepening moisture will gather around the southern
periphery funneling across the Bahamas toward the FL coast.
Enhanced wind flow will keep local conditions on the breezy side
Sun, particularly along the coast. Meanwhile, a mid-level cut-off
will wobble and roll into the Deep South to assist with a
developing sfc low in the same general vicinity. The response will
be to maintain the enhanced wind flow which will progressively
veer SE-S into Mon. Rain chances will increase through Monday. Max
temps in the U70s- M80s with overnight min temps M60s
inland/around 70 at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ceilings will gradually lower tonight becoming
MVFR for most terminals near midnight. Isolated showers will push
onshore, with some strong enough to advance farther inland, so
VCSH remains through tomorrow. TEMPO groups for lowest cigs a few
hours before sunrise for inland terminals and KDAB/KTIX. Easterly
winds remain elevated overnight becoming gusty again tomorrow
after 14Z. Showers likely again tomorrow with isolated
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Sunday...(prev discussion) A fresh, long fetch onshore
breeze of 20-23KT continues the next 24 hours, veering from east
tonight to ESE Sunday. Seas will build as high as 6-7FT range near
shore and 9FT well offshore, with a SCA continuing.

Sunday night-Monday night...Poor to hazardous boating conditions
continue as a moderate to fresh SE breeze overnight veers to SSE-S
Monday. Increased chances for showers with isolated thunderstorms
through the period. SCA conditions early with 5-7FT near shore and
up to 8FT well offshore Sunday night will slowly ease some Monday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  77  68  82 /  30  70  60  80
MCO  68  79  68  86 /  40  70  50  80
MLB  72  78  70  84 /  50  70  60  80
VRB  70  78  70  84 /  50  70  60  70
LEE  68  79  69  85 /  30  60  50  80
SFB  67  79  68  85 /  40  70  50  80
ORL  67  79  68  85 /  40  70  50  80
FPR  70  78  69  84 /  50  70  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Smith
LONG TERM....Spratt



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