Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 221707
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1207 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

...Are We On Track for a Record Cold and Dry April???...

The active pattern continues this next week, however we still are
getting missed by appreciable precipitation. See climate section
for details.

Forecast concerns will be any lingering light precipitation today,
clouds and temperatures through Monday night, then chance of
rain/winds Tuesday/Thursday and this weekend.

The latest WSR-88d radar mosaic highlights the main area of showers
rotating around the h5 closed low that is currently centered over
Kansas. The active thunderstorms for the day were over northern
Texas with some hail and wind reports. Thunderstorms extend from
the Texas Gulf Coast into Arkansas and a few farther west into
Oklahoma early this morning.

Upstream, GOES-16 water vapor satellite imagery has a shortwave
over Washington/Oregon. This wave will deepen over the next
couple of days and will be the next weather-maker for the region
Tuesday.

The closed h5 low continues to slowly move southeast into Arkansas
today and the Kentucky/Tennessee region Monday. The lift weakens
locally and is more focused in Missouri and southeastward.  Starting to
see more breaks in the overcast from Iowa into northeast Nebraska.
This should continue through the day for much of the area with a
mix of clouds and sun. A southeast low level jet will continue to
advect moisture from the Gulf states northward across Missouri
into southeast Nebraska and near the Iowa/Missouri border this
afternoon. Forecast soundings hold onto clouds in the 5-10k ft
level in southeast Nebraska, so will be more pessimistic with the
clouds there. All the short range models are dry save for the GFS
this afternoon. May mention so sprinkles in southeast Nebraska
this afternoon. Highs today should rise into the 60s and being
in-between storm system Monday should top out in the upper 60s.

Clouds are on the increase Monday night as the trough over Montana
swings southeastward toward South Dakota and Nebraska There is
good model agreement in the location of the h5 trough, although
the NAM12 is a bit deeper and closes it off over western Nebraska
Tuesday and the models all have a slightly difference solution
related to the qpf fields. The cold front sweeps across the
forecast area Tuesday morning and early afternoon. northwest winds
increase into the breezy category behind the front. Will maintain
isolated to scattered category for pops until there is better
agreement on where to expect the light rain Tuesday and Tuesday
night. With the clouds and cold air advection, some areas may see
highs only in the 50s, with 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Wednesday is looking dry and warmer with mid level ridging ahead
of the next trough dropping through the Upper Mississippi Valley.
The shortwave trough drags a cold front through Thursday,
increasing winds and limiting highs to the 50s and 60s. The GFS
has spotty post-frontal showers mostly in Iowa, while the EC has
post-frontal has a northeast to southwest band from the Great
Lakes toward the Texas Panhandle. The band is fast-moving, thus
most amounts are a tenth of an inch or less. Northwest winds
Friday will put a chill on the highs in the 60s, although the
winds may diminish by evening as surface high pressure builds in.

Finally, it looks like we may see some good weather on the weekend!
Return flow sets up for Saturday and high temperatures may top out
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  The GFS is a little more pessimistic
and tries to return some moisture with a weak shortwave in the
northwest flow aloft and a few spotty showers Saturday night .
and Sunday. We`ll see how this trend evolves this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Light winds will
gradually veer to the east this afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Cold first three weeks of April... So far with the data collected
for April, Norfolk, Lincoln, are seeing their coldest average
temperatures for April and Omaha is in 3rd place. We still have
over a week to go and should still be in the top 5 or so cold
Aprils by the end of the month.

April has been dry as well. Not much rain is forecast, so we also
have a shot at these records.

Driest April Precipitation Records

Location   April to Date   Record  Year  Other Information
Lincoln    0.11"           0.02"   1910  To be in top 5  0.36"
Omaha      0.10"           0.23"   1936  To be in top 5  0.38"
Norfolk    1.00"           0.11"   1928  To be in top 20 1.04"

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...KG
CLIMATE...Zapotocny


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