Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 232330
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
730 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weather through Saturday. A
cold front pushes south of the area and remains nearly
stationary through Memorial Day. Another cold front follows on
Tuesday with high pressure building in behind.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An upper level trough moves further offshore tonight. Heights
rise as ridging approaches and surface high pressure builds
towards the region tonight. Expect mostly clear skies and light
winds tonight. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and lower
60s. A MAV/MET/ECS blend for overnight low were used.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds into the region on Thursday, then
remains in place through Friday. Expect mostly sunny skies both
Thursday and Friday, with mostly clear skies Thursday night.

Temperatures on Thursday will climb into the 70s and lower 80s,
temperatures on Friday will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s
and 80s. The only exception will be right along the immediate
coastline, where temperatures will hold in the lower 70s. Thursday
night, lows fall into the 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Anchored high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will lead to a
continued southwest flow ushering in a more humid airmass on
Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s under a
mostly sunny sky. Temperatures in and around NYC may even hit the 90
degree mark. South facing shores of Long Island and CT will be about
5-10 degrees cooler due to the southerly flow off the water.

Sunday becomes more complex as a cold front gets pushed to the south
as northern stream high pressure moves into eastern Canada. The
front may remain south of the area into Memorial Day which will keep
an unsettled pattern in place. However, it should be noted there is
still a large amount of uncertainty on whether the front retreats
back into the area or remains to the south. The placement of the
front will ultimately determine temperatures and the rain threat
Sunday into Memorial Day. Have kept chance PoPs in the forecast
through Monday afternoon. Easterly flow will keep clouds and cooler
temperatures in the forecast with highs on Sunday and Monday only in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Another cold front is expected to swing through on Tuesday with
Canadian high pressure following behind it. Temperatures return to
near seasonable to a few degrees above.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds tonight and Thursday.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with few
clouds to contend with.

Light NW winds are forecast tonight. NW winds Thursday morning
will shift around to local seabreezes in the afternoon, except
KSWF.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this
evening. Timing of wind shift Thursday, seabreeze, may be off
an hour or two.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this
evening. Timing of wind shift Thursday, seabreeze, may be off
an hour or two.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this
evening. Low confidence in timing of late day sea breeze.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this
evening. Low confidence in timing of late day sea breeze.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this
evening. Low confidence in timing of late day sea breeze.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected this
evening. Timing of wind shift Thursday, seabreeze, may be off
an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday night...VFR.
.Friday...VFR. SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through
early evening.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR. Low chances of showers and
thunderstorms near NYC Metro terminals and to the N and W
starting in the afternoon with possible MVFR. Higher chance of
showers and thunderstorms at night.
.Sunday-Monday...MVFR or lower at times with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build toward the waters today through Friday.
With a weak pressure gradient across the forecast waters, winds
and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels.

The tranquil conditions on the area waters will continue
through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Friday.

No hydrologic impacts are expected through Saturday. While there
remains uncertainty for Sunday into early next week, there is
potential for 1/2 inch of rainfall from Sunday through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CB/BC
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...CB/BC
HYDROLOGY...CB/BC
EQUIPMENT...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.