Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
608 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH APRIL 26TH...

This is the eighth flood potential outlook of the 2018 season. Flood
outlooks will be issued every two weeks into early spring to
summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for flooding.
The outlooks are based on current and forecast hydrometeorological
conditions. This includes snow cover and water equivalent, creek and
river levels and the amount of ice on them, along with the expected
conditions during the next two weeks.

..CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

Temperatures have averaged well below normal over the past two
weeks. This has helped to maintain the existing snow pack in the
Black River basin. Elsewhere, there is some light and patchy snow,
but snow water equivalent values are fairly negligible.

There remains a significant but variable snow pack in the Black
River basin. Snow water equivalent values in the Black River basin
are about double of what they normally would be in mid-April.
However, these are mainly across higher terrain, with much less in
the valleys.

The following is a summary of the conditions collected between
April 10-12th:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........Patchy up to 2 inches across higher terrain.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than an inch.
.CREEK FLOWS.........Near to slightly below normal.
.CREEK ICE...........None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........Patchy up to 2 inches across higher terrain.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than an inch.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Near to slightly below normal.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........Patchy up to 2 inches across higher terrain.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than an inch.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Below normal.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........Patchy areas less than a foot across lower
terrain, with 1 to 2.5 feet on the Tug Hill and Adirondacks.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....Less than 2 inches, except 4 to 7 inches on the
Tug Hill and Adirondacks.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Below normal.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........Mainly frozen, less than 6 inches.
.GROUND STATE........Mainly frozen.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

A strong front will be near the region through Saturday. This will
result in periods of rain, with temperatures possibly cold enough
for some frozen precipitation north of the stalled boundary. More
significant rainfall and warmer temperatures are expected Sunday
into Monday. Storm total amounts over 3 inches are possible.
Also, warmer temperatures may result in snow and ice melt.

After this, cool and wet pattern is expected to continue through the
end of the month. The 8 to 14 day outlook is for below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

There is an above normal risk for flooding during the outlook period.

First, there may be a significant rainfall over the weekend and into
next week. This system will result in enough rainfall to
potentially cause flooding. There also may be a period of warmer
temperatures which could melt snow and ice in the Black River
basin where there is still a significant snow pack in place. This
system is the primary concern for the outlook period.

After this, there is still expected to be a wet pattern through the
end of the month. Long range guidance suggests a deep trough or slow
moving system may build into the central U.S. and eventually help
transport another round of Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region
late in the month.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for specific
locations along rivers across Western New York can be found on the
internet at www.weather.gov/buf. Since conditions can change, please
refer to the latest flood watches, warnings, and statements for
additional information.

Thank you to all the observers and agencies which have helped gather
data in support of this outlook. The next outlook will be issued
April 26th if any snow pack remains. Otherwise, this will be the
final outlook of the season.

$$

Apffel



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