795
FNUS53 KAPX 061939
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

...Rain chances later Tuesday into Tuesday night...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep the
weather rain free across northern Lower Michigan through the first
part of Tuesday...but rain chances will increase from southwest to
northeast Tuesday afternoon with a period of widespread showers
and some embedded thunderstorms Tuesday night.  Wednesday will see
more clouds and perhaps some lingering light rain across the tip
of the mitt counties...but more sun and warmer temperatures south
of M-32.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-070815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
339 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (34).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent). Isolated rain showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........27-32 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (750).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers until
                    2400Chance of rain showers after 2400. Patchy
                    fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (43).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.20- 0.60 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of rain showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler...except 15 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent...except 57-62 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter...except 39 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (438).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-070815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
339 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....36-41.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 16 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy frost until 1200.
                    Isolated rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (446).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    until 2400. Chance of rain showers after 2400.
                    Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer...except 7 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (35).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.15- 0.55 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of rain showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (779).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-070815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
339 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........73-78 percent...except 55-60 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent drier...except 20 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (39).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 50-55 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (759).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.21 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog. Rain
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms until
                    2400Chance of rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer...except 4 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......36 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    south after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (44).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.26- 0.42 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of rain showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 42-47 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 51-56 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (448).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-070815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
339 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........74-79 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent drier...except 26 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (47).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (809).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.35 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms until 2400.
                    Patchy fog.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.25- 0.35 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer...except 5 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 51-56 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 6 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (675).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-070815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
339 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....36-41.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy frost until 1200.
                    Isolated rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (726).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog. Rain
                    showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
                    until 2400. Chance of rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 10 mph shifting to the south
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (42).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 15 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.15- 0.28 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1136).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND
60. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JPB