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000
FNUS74 KAMA 230513
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for XL Fire...TPPBA
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Relative humidity values will only drop down to the mid 20s at its
lowest point Monday afternoon. To start the day, around sunrise,
RH values will be in the mid 80s, so we will start the day moist.
Wind speeds will be light and variable to start the day, but
eventually getting a more southerly dominant component by the
afternoon hours. Wind speeds will only be around 10-15 mph with
perhaps an occasional gust to 20 mph this afternoon. Overall, not
a bad Spring day for the Panhandles with highs in the 70s.

Guerrero

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000-3500 ft AGL increasing to 6500-8000 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (14000-54000 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent (66000 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............49     58     66     73     77
RH..............66     49     36     29     25
20 ft wind......S 3    S 5    S 7    S 8    S 9
20 ft wind gust.       7      12     14     15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0    3.5    5.5    7.0    8.0
Transp wind dir.S      S      SW     SW     SW
Transp wind spd.8      13     14     13     14
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100014     39     66     77     96

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......8500-9000 ft AGL decreasing to 0-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (78000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to
                    good (0-39000 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............77     72     65     59     55     51
RH..............24     31     43     53     61     71
20 ft wind......S 10   SE 10  SE 10  SE 9   SE 9   SE 9
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     12     12     12
Mix hgt (kft)...8.5    6.0    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5
Transp wind dir.SW     S      SE     SE     SE     S
Transp wind spd.14     15     14     12     10     9
Haines index....3      3      3      3      4      4
VRate kt-ft/1000102    78     6      5      5      4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 13 mph shifting to the
                    north 15 to 22 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2500-4000 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 8 mph shifting to the north 5 to 14
                    mph late in the morning, then increasing to 18
                    to 24 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-36000 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (64000 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............48     50     55     62     65     63
RH..............80     74     64     50     43     43
20 ft wind......S 9    SE 13  N 20   N 21   N 21   N 21
20 ft wind gust.12     18     29     32     32     32
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    0.5    1.5    3.0    4.0    4.0
Transp wind dir.S      SW     NW     N      N      N
Transp wind spd.8      6      6      14     20     22
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      5
VRate kt-ft/10000      3      8      36     68     76

$$
Forecaster...Guerrero
Requested by...Andrew Bivins
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807378.0/AMA