Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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699
FNUS73 KLMK 131722
FWSLMK

Spot Forecast for Floyd County Wildfire...NWS LMK
National Weather Service Louisville, KY
122 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1400 EDT on April 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Another dry, warm and breezy day expected across the
region. Southerly to southwesterly winds will gust as high as 35mph this
afternoon as mixing within the boundary layer occurs. 10 hour fuels
continue to remain dry, and while temperatures will climb to around 80
this afternoon, relative humidities are forecast to stay above 25% today.

Winds will subside some tonight, but could be gusty at times. Showers
and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will begin to move into the
region Saturday morning. A couple of additional rounds of rain will be
possible through the weekend, resulting in many locations receiving
several inches of rain by Sunday evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 17 to 18 mph with gusts to around
                    25 mph.
Mixing height.......4300-5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 32 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (119600 knot-ft).
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................96 increasing to 103 late in the afternoon.
DSI.................2.

TIME (EDT)       2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)..........48  52  56  60
Weather cov......
Weather type.....
Tstm cov.........
Temp.............77  79  80  80
RH...............39  36  36  35
20 FT wind dir...S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd...18  18  17  17
20 FT wind gust..25  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)....4.3 5.0 5.5 5.4
Transp wind dir..S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd..32  32  32  32
Dispersion.......2   2   2   2
LVORI............1   1   1   1
ADI..............92  99  103 102
VRate kt-ft/1000.120 140 154 151

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......2100-4000 ft AGL decreasing to 200-800 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 26 to 32 mph decreasing to 15 to 22 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (111800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (4300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................89 decreasing to 17.
DSI.................2.

TIME (EDT)       6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)..........53  46  39  43  46  50  56  61  67  76  85  94
Weather cov......                                    SCH CHC CHC
Weather type.....                                    RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov.........                                    SCH SCH SCH
Temp.............79  78  74  71  69  67  66  65  65  64  64  63
RH...............36  39  40  44  49  52  56  60  63  65  67  70
20 FT wind dir...S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd...15  14  9   8   8   8   7   7   8   7   7   8
20 FT wind gust..25  20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)....4.0 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8
Transp wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd..32  31  30  26  22  18  17  18  18  17  16  15
Dispersion.......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI............1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3
ADI..............89  42  20  18  15  16  15  16  16  15  14  13
VRate kt-ft/1000.112 58  16  4   5   8   8   9   10  10  10  10

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms  early in the morning.
                    Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the morning then 20 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900-2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (11800-39700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................18 increasing to 36.
DSI.................2.

TIME (EDT)       6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)..........95  96  97  98  99  100 100 100 100 98  97  95
Weather cov......CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type.....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov.........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp.............63  62  62  63  65  66  68  69  69  70  71  71
RH...............72  78  84  84  81  78  73  70  70  68  66  66
20 FT wind dir...S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd...8   8   12  12  12  12  10  10  9   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust..15  15  25  25  25  25  20  20  15  15  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)....0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.8
Transp wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd..15  15  15  16  18  20  20  20  18  17  16  16
Dispersion.......2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
LVORI............3   3   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI..............13  20  20  22  24  25  25  27  28  32  35  37
VRate kt-ft/1000.12  13  15  15  17  17  17  19  21  29  35  40

$$
Forecaster...RJS
Requested by...Jeremy Klein
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1806633.0/LMK
.EMAIL jklein@ltvfd.org



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