905
FXUS63 KGLD 051128
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
528 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds in eastern CO and far western KS late
  this aft/eve may create hazardous travel conditions for high
  profile vehicles on east-west routes, such as I-70, where
  cross winds will be strongest.

- Limited window of opportunity for severe thunderstorms in
  northwest KS early Monday afternoon, mainly along/east of a
  line from Norton to Hill City between 1-4 PM CDT.

- 30-45 mph WSW winds and low RH will foster a very high
  grassland fire danger potential over portions of the area
  Monday and Tuesday, especially south of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 445 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Overview: A potent upper level low, presently centered invof
northern California, will progress eastward across the
Intermountain West (today-tonight).. then abruptly lift NNE-N
from the 4-Corners to the western Dakotas (Mon-Mon night).

Today-Tonight: A southerly return flow regime will.. return..
as the MSLP-H85 height gradient reorients and tightens in
response to renewed surface pressure falls in the lee of the
central Rockies -- via height falls /increasingly cyclonic flow
aloft/ attendant the aforementioned upper level low approaching
from the west. Expect strengthening (25-40 mph) southerly winds
and a warming trend.. with highs ranging from the upper 60s to
mid 70s, warmest in eastern Colorado. Low-level flow will back
to the SSE and further strengthen Sunday evening -- on the
eastern periphery of an intensifying lee cyclone in Colorado.
Forecast soundings indicate 40-50 knot SSE flow `off-the-deck`
within a shallow mixed layer in eastern CO and adjacent KS
border areas Sunday evening into Sunday night -- after sunset,
~02-03Z -- suggesting a potential for strong winds (30-45 mph G
55 mph), though.. confidence is low with regard to whether or
not mixing will be sufficient to transport said flow to the
surface / penetrate a near-surface nocturnal inversion.

Mon-Mon night: Guidance indicates that focused forcing /DPVA/
attendant the aforementioned upper wave will largely be
relegated to locations north and west of the Tri-State area.. as
it lifts NNE-N from central Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle
Monday morning. Subsidence in the wake of this feature -- and
relatively strong WSW low-mid level flow on the southern
periphery of the northward advancing SFC-H85 cyclone -- will
rapidly propel a dry low-mid level airmass (manifesting at the
surface as a dryline) eastward into central KS late Monday
morning and early Monday afternoon. Current and recent runs of
the HRRR, NAM NEST and RAP indicate that the dryline will be
invof Highway 283 by ~18Z.. and that convective initiation will
occur shortly thereafter.. with activity growing upscale and
progressing eastward into central/eastern KS during the late
afternoon and evening. With the above in mind, expect a narrow
spatio-temporal `window of opportunity` for severe weather in
the GLD CWA.. along and east of a line from Norton-Hill City-
Wakeeney between 18-21Z. 30-45 mph WSW winds and low RH readings
will foster a very high grassland fire danger potential over
portions of the area during the day on Monday, especially south
of Interstate 70.. where a Red Flag Warning may be necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Most of next week`s weather will be influenced by a large upper low
moving over the Northwest CONUS while the trough extends south
towards the Mexico border. This low is expected to linger over the
Great Plains and Rockies through Friday. Given the pattern and the
potential for shortwave disturbances to also move over the Tri-State
area, there is a chance (up to 30%) of showers and thunderstorms
over various portions of the area. Wednesday currently has the least
amount of confidence for any precipitation due to a lack of moisture
and a surface high lingering over the Rockies. Severe weather is not
anticipated during the period as instability is limited in the long
range guidance.

There is concern for critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday
along and south of a Logan County to Cheyenne County, Colorado line.
RH values are forecast to fall into the low to mid teens with WSW to
westerly winds gusting up to 45-50 mph. Locales north of the area of
concern are expected to remain in the upper teens for RH with gusts
up to 45 mph. Wednesday has the potential for near critical to
critical fire weather conditions with RH values in the mid to upper
teens along and south of a Yuma to Oakley line. Northwest winds are
forecast to gust up to 35 mph. Overlapping conditions are a limiting
factor for the southwest corner being able to reach Red Flag
criteria as winds decrease during the late afternoon.

Late Friday into Saturday the upper low finally begins to move over
the Eastern CONUS. Shortwave ridging is expected to move over the
Tri-State area ahead of another upper low that should move across
the Great Basin. Some showers and non-severe storms remain possible
in the afternoon primarily over Colorado with up to 20% confidence.
Temperatures during the long term are expected to be mainly in the
60s to 70s each day, except for Friday which is forecast to be in
the 60s across the area. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s
each night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

GLD: MVFR (perhaps IFR) stratus is anticipated for a period this
morning. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter, through the
afternoon and evening. Sub-VFR ceilings may return near the end
of the TAF period (06-12Z Mon). SSE to S winds will increase to
15-25 knots within a few hours after sunrise.. further
increasing to 20-30 knots by late morning, 25-35 knots this
afternoon and (perhaps) 30-40 knots this evening.

MCK: VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the
majority of the TAF period. MVFR-IFR ceilings are anticipated to
rapidly develop near the end of the TAF period (09-12Z Mon).
SSE to S winds will increase to 20-30 knots by mid-afternoon..
further increasing to 25-35 knots late this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...Vincent