Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
253 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Latest upper air and satellite show an upper level trough moving
east onto the plains.  At the surface a warm front was moving east
across the Tri-State Area.  Behind the front west winds were gusting
up to 60 MPH.  The high winds had created a corridor of blowing dust
extending from south of CO Springs northeast to Yuma.  To the
northwest a cold front was approaching.

Tonight high winds will spread from west to east behind a cold
front.  The highest winds will be in the evening when the base of
the upper level trough moves overhead.  The high wind threat will
end after midnight as the trough shifts east of the forecast area.
The threat for blowing dust will continue into the evening. As
mentioned earlier, confidence for where/if the blowing dust will
occur is low due to the recent snow. There is a corridor of dust
over the East Central CO, but that is mainly elevated allowing the
visibility to remain around 3 miles.

Wednesday the winds will be breezy but only gust 30-40 MPH during
the latter half of the morning/early afternoon.  During the
afternoon the winds will decline as the low level jet moves east of
the forecast area. Due to relative humidity falling to 20% or so
over the southwest part of the forecast area, elevated fire
conditions are likely. Considered issuing a fire weather watch but
the winds decrease as the relative humidity falls.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

In the extended(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...
Active weather pattern is expected for the period as another
strong H5 low is expected to sweep across the area with favored
track taking it to the south of the CWA, putting area in favorable
area for significant precipitation. Best chances look to be on
Friday and Friday night before low begins to dig to the south and
away from the area. Overall current forecast looked pretty good
with only marginal changes needed to overall timing and PoPs.

Probably the most pressing concern will be whether or not precip
will change from rain to snow across the area. Last 4 cycles of
GEFS ensemble data indicates precipitation should stay rain across
all but the western fringes of CWA and even there the rain seems
to dominant weather type. Given the broad area of southeasterly
flow, will be tough for cold air to overspread area fast enough to
result in any significant accumulations and feel confident that
overall winter threat will be small.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. Main concern will be the
high winds expected. The high winds may create some blowing dust
which could reduce visibility to MVFR conditions or lower. The
recent snow will have helped limit the blowing dust to some
extent, but not eliminated the threat. The high winds will be
most likely when the winds turn to the northwest. During the night
there will be some LLWS at both sites.


KS...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for KSZ001-

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Wednesday
     for KSZ003-004-015-016-029.

CO...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.

NE...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Wednesday for NEZ079-

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Wednesday
     for NEZ081.



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