Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
728 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Issued at 727 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

A dust storm warning had been issued for the strong outflow ahead
of a group of storms moving across northwest Kansas. The storms
have decreased in strength and the associated outflow has also
decreased in strength and moved out of the forecast area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Tonight...mid level moisture will interact with a frontal boundary
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening with
some of the storms becoming severe generally south and east of a
line from Norton to Goodland and Flagler. Another disturbance moves
out of southeast Wyoming into the McCook and Norton areas close to
midnight producing a small batch of possible severe storms.
Precipitation should come to an end by early morning Friday. Low
temperatures range from the low to mid 50s in far eastern Colorado
to the mid 50s to low 60s east of the CO/KS border.

Friday-Friday night...upper level ridging builds over the area ahead
of a low pressure system off the central California coast. 850mb
temperatures and bias corrected grids support highs in the mid 80s
to near 90 in far eastern Colorado with low to mid 90s east of the
CO/KS border. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. No
precipitation is expected.

Saturday-Saturday night...the upper ridge axis is firmly over the
area during the day before slowly moving east during the night
putting the forecast area under southwest flow aloft ahead of a low
pressure center over Nevada and Utah. 850mb temperatures warm
another 2F to 6F across the area and when combined with better
performing bias grids produce highs in the low to upper 90s across
the area. Along and west of the CO/KS border southeast winds look to
become breezy with gusts 30 to 35 mph possible. Low temperatures
range from the mid 50s to low 60s in far eastern Colorado with mid
60s east of the state line.

Sunday...models continue to advertise a weather disturbance moving
north-northeast into the area ahead of upper low to our west. This
continues to support a chance for afternoon thunderstorms. Breezy
southeast winds again with highs in the mid/upper 80s west to low
90s east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Southwest flow prevails at the start of the period, with an upper
low centered over eastern Nevada and western Utah. This low pushes
northeast into the northern Plains on Monday and Tuesday, before
traveling along the Canadian border towards the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Thursday.

As this disturbance advances, a few waves pass over the region and
surface lee side troughing persists near the Colorado border through
midweek. With this set up, periodic showers and thunderstorms are
forecast Sunday night through Wednesday. There is a potential for
severe thunderstorms during this timeframe with decent moisture,
sufficient shear, and good instability in place. Will be able to
resolve details including location and timing closer to next week as
guidance improves.

Upper ridging begins to develop across the High Plains late
Wednesday into Thursday. Could still see some precipitation chances
on Thursday before the ridge amplifies on Friday.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal, with highs in the
80s to low 90s and lows in the 50s to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 542 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

VFR conditions are expected at GLD and MCK through the 00Z TAF
period. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of GLD through
about 03Z before they move off to the east. Winds will be light
through the overnight hours out of the south and ware expected to
transition to the northwest and north through the day on Friday
under mostly clear skies.

MCK will see scattered sky cover, but is not expected to see
thunderstorms this evening as the cold front along with the storms
are developing will remain to the south and east. Light north
winds will turn southeasterly overnight and then northwesterly
again by Friday afternoon.




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