Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 180848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
248 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are mainly clear
except for some high thin cirrus working into the area from the
south. Temperatures are currently ranging from the upper 20s into
the mid 30s with winds out of the ESE...gusting in spots at times
around 15 to 20 mph.

For today...dry conditions are expected to persist thru the day
today with region in between high pressure to the east and an
approaching surface/upper low currently moving thru the Rockies.

Some patchy fog is possible for a few hours this morning in NE zones
closest to surface ridge.

The gradient between the two systems will give the area windy
conditions thru the day as a result. By the afternoon hrs...these
winds will aid in creating dangerous Fire Wx conditions over extreme
S/SW have issued a Red Flag Warning for the afternoon

Transition expected thru the afternoon as low complex moves off the
Front Range south of the CWA along the KS/OK border. Models have
consistently shown ample QPF potential for the region as this system
moves east later today on into the Monday timeframe. Looking for
light precipitation to develop by 00z Monday increasing in areal
coverage by 06z. Weak instability out ahead of the low continues to
give the chance for thunder for the area...especially SE zones. SPC
continues to have this area under a Marginal Risk for severe...
although past couple days has seen this Marginal Risk shrink further

Going into the evening/overnight the lows transition
eastward...expecting colder air to wrap around and into the area
from the north. The result of the CAA will allow for rain to
transition to light snow. Precip tapers from west to east during the
day Monday. Some lingering light rw/sw possible early Monday night
before high pressure returns for Monday night on into Tuesday night.

Fair consistency in expected snowfall for the transition over the
area...with highest amts of 1-3 inches for NW sections of the
CWA...tapering to a half inch or less elsewhere. At this time the
areas impacted by highest totals could see an Advisory posted later

For temps...daytime highs mainly in the 60s today ahead of low...40s
Monday and 50s for Tuesday. Overnight lows will have 30s
tonight...trending downward to the 20s for Mon/Tues nights.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Chances for precipitation for this part of the forecast are looking
better next weekend.

The upper level short wave ridge will slide across the forecast area
midweek.  Behind the ridge models disagree regarding how strong the
next upper level trough will be.  The GFS has been fairly consistent
with its depiction for the last four model runs, keeping the trough
over Southern Canada.  The ECMWF has not been consistent at all,
varying from a closed low to an open wave.  The GEFS members all
resemble the GFS, so based on that have more confidence in the
further north track shown by the GFS.  The GFS track would be more
favorable for bringing precipitation through than the ECMWF, which
until the latest run had routed the precipitation to the south.  The
latest ECMWF is looking more like the GFS, which further adds
confidence to the GFS solution.  Assuming the GFS is the more
correct of the two, the best chance for precipitation will be
Saturday ahead of the upper level short wave trough.

Breezy winds Friday through Sunday will cause concern for hazardous
fire weather conditions, mainly south of I-70.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday morning)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Aside from a short period of MVFR/IFR stratus possible at the
KMCK terminal this morning (11-16Z), VFR conditions will prevail
through sunset /00Z/. MVFR/IFR ceilings associated with showers
will be possible this evening by the end of the TAF period
(00-06Z Mon). Somewhat breezy SSE winds (15-20 knots with gusts to
25-30 knots) are expected to prevail at the KGLD terminal this
morning, strengthening to 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30-35 knots
during the afternoon. Winds are expected to back from SSE to E by
the end of the TAF period at KGLD. At KMCK, expect ESE winds at
8-13 knots this morning to veer to the SE at 15-18 knots with
gusts up to 25-28 knots by early afternoon (~18Z). By the end of
the 06Z TAF period, winds at KMCK will back to the ESE/E and
strengthen to 20-25 knots with gusts possibly up to 30-35 knots.


Issued at 248 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Critical fire weather conditions will develop over Cheyenne CO
and Greeley KS this afternoon. Expecting winds gusting up to 35
mph at interact with humidity readings near 15 percent.

Hazardous fire weather conditions could develop from Friday right
on into next Sunday for areas along and south of Interstate 70.


KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for



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